25620 Coleman Dr · Splendora, TX 77372

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1972 1.21 ac lot $75/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS-IS sale on a beautiful lot. The house needs TLC. The opportunities are endless.

Key facts

• 1.21 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $90k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.54%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,437
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: -63.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25780 E Holly Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-4%)	13mo	$250,000	$217	56
26165 Magnolia Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (+13%)	11mo	$269,165	$198	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-4,631
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $9,563
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $177	+0% $152	+5% $126	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $92	+0% $152	+5% $212	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $175	base $152	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,999 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,999 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $89,999 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    AS-IS sale on a beautiful lot. The house needs TLC. The opportunities are endless.

17. 2026-02-18
    listed $125,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    AS-IS sale on a beautiful lot. The house needs TLC. The opportunities are endless.

18. 2026-02-17
    soldstatus
19. 1999-07-07
    soldstatus
20. 1994-10-03
    soldstatus $59,384
21. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$5,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $1,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+51.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $89,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $59,384 Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.