Barlow Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$256,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,197 sqft · SingleFamily · 382 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Natural creek
• Green spaces
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GREEN SPACES
• NATURAL CREEK

🏗️ New construction. The $256,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,337.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-566 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 382 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,907 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 382 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,337
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -17.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9203 White Tail Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,287 (+4%)	3mo	$469,000	$205	61
9708 Sunny Valley Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,109 (-4%)	3mo	$263,000	$125	60
4618 Axis Trl	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,396 (+9%)	3mo	$515,000	$215	59
9171 Whitetail Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+11%)	4mo	$459,900	$188	54
9719 Caney Bend Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	1mo	$279,900	$139	53
14435 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	2mo	$253,900	$126	51
14419 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	3mo	$259,900	$129	51
14223 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-9%)	6mo	$264,900	$132	50
14431 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+11%)	3mo	$299,900	$123	43
14427 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	41
14423 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-15%)	2mo	$242,900	$130	36
9530 Shady Trail Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+11%)	6mo	$288,900	$118	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-92,912
• Equity at exit: $46,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-150,891
• Equity at exit: $27,092

Cash invested: $87,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,643
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,700/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $231,480

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-349	-5% $-457	+0% $-566	+5% $-674	+10% $-782
Rent	-10% $-732	-5% $-649	+0% $-566	+5% $-482	+10% $-399
Rate	-1.0pp $-408	-0.5pp $-486	base $-566	+0.5pp $-647	+1.0pp $-729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,334
• Closing costs: $9,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	44d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	0d	14	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,990 Active 382 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,990 Active 379 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $256,990 Active 378 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,990 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,990 Active 377 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,990 Active 376 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,990 Active 374 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,990 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 365 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 364 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 363 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 362 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,990 Active 361 DOM
16. 2025-06-04
    listed $255,990 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,552
• − Property taxes: −$4,700
• − Insurance: −$2,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$9,115
• Taxable loss: −$12,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a modern open-concept floor plan and is in good condition, with potential for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Listed $255,990 Zillow