7629 Russell Hill Rd · Houghton, NY 14717

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1979 3.00 ac lot $196/sqft · 46% below area Est $223k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover peace and privacy in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, country cabin tucked away in the quiet woods of Allegany County. Inside, is a warm living and dining area, anchored by a classic wood-burning stove—ideal for unwinding after a day spent outdoors. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinet storage and plenty of room for preparing meals with ease. In addition to two snug bedrooms and a full bath, the upstairs loft adds a touch of charm and versatility—ideal for extra sleeping space, curling up with a book, or setting up your remote workspace. Relax on the front patio and enjoy the soft sunlight filtering through the trees, bathing the space in a warm, tranquil glow. Take in the stunning views of the surrounding woods, offering a serene and picturesque setting perfect for quiet moments and peaceful reflection. Nestled on three wooded acres, this serene property is a dream for outdoor enthusiasts—peaceful, secluded, and full of potential. Enjoy quiet nights around the fire pit under the stars, and take advantage of the shed for storage, hobbies, or outdoor gear. Located just a short drive from I-86 and close to boating, fishing, and recreation at Rushford Lake, Whether you're looking for a weekend escape, hunting basecamp, or year-round living, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of comfort and rustic charm. Open House, Sat, 10/25, 11-1pm.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Front patio
• Three wooded acres

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• FRONT PATIO
• FIRE PIT
• THREE WOODED ACRES
• SHED FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#590 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Belfast Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #577 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $120k implies a 532% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $82,944 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,752
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -46.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-27,245
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-33,821
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14717

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $984

Max offer price $98,420

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-88	+0% $-122	+5% $-156	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-155	+0% $-122	+5% $-89	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-92	base $-122	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-03-26
    status Active 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Discover peace and privacy in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, country cabin tucked away in the quiet woods of Allegany County. Inside, is a warm living and dining area, anchored by a classic wood-burning stove—ideal for unwinding after a day spent outdoors. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinet storage and plenty of room for preparing meals with ease. In addition to two snug bedrooms and a full bath, the upstairs loft adds a touch of charm and versatility—ideal for extra sleeping space, curling up with a book, or setting up your remote workspace. Relax on the front patio and enjoy the soft sunlight filtering through the trees, bathing the space in a warm, tranquil glow. Take in the stunning views of the surrounding woods, offering a serene and picturesque setting perfect for quiet moments and peaceful reflection. Nestled on three wooded acres, this serene property is a dream for outdoor enthusiasts—peaceful, secluded, and full of potential. Enjoy quiet nights around the fire pit under the stars, and take advantage of the shed for storage, hobbies, or outdoor gear. Located just a short drive from I-86 and close to boating, fishing, and recreation at Rushford Lake, Whether you're looking for a weekend escape, hunting basecamp, or year-round living, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of comfort and rustic charm. Open House, Sat, 10/25, 11-1pm.

19. 2025-10-02
    listed $130,000 Active 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Discover peace and privacy in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, country cabin tucked away in the quiet woods of Allegany County. Inside, is a warm living and dining area, anchored by a classic wood-burning stove—ideal for unwinding after a day spent outdoors. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinet storage and plenty of room for preparing meals with ease. In addition to two snug bedrooms and a full bath, the upstairs loft adds a touch of charm and versatility—ideal for extra sleeping space, curling up with a book, or setting up your remote workspace. Relax on the front patio and enjoy the soft sunlight filtering through the trees, bathing the space in a warm, tranquil glow. Take in the stunning views of the surrounding woods, offering a serene and picturesque setting perfect for quiet moments and peaceful reflection. Nestled on three wooded acres, this serene property is a dream for outdoor enthusiasts—peaceful, secluded, and full of potential. Enjoy quiet nights around the fire pit under the stars, and take advantage of the shed for storage, hobbies, or outdoor gear. Located just a short drive from I-86 and close to boating, fishing, and recreation at Rushford Lake, Whether you're looking for a weekend escape, hunting basecamp, or year-round living, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of comfort and rustic charm. Open House, Sat, 10/25, 11-1pm.

20. 2009-02-11
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$796
• − Management: −$796
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$3,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $-595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belfast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604350
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,217
• Composite: 40.14/100
• National rank: #7847
• State rank: #577 of 755 in NY

Livability — Houghton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #590
• US rank: #10687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 612

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Portuguese 5% Slovak 5%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.38%
• Current HPI: 349.0955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+584.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.