163 El Pajaro #163 · Thousand Oaks, CA 91320

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1976 1,152 sqft lot $216/sqft · 24% below area Est $329k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

Key facts

• Gated community
• Bright kitchen
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CUL-DE-SAC
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• EXPANSIVE PICTURE WINDOWS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Acceptable terms: Conventional, Cash, Other

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (no attached garage)
• Utilities: Land lease
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property; Entry on main level; Located in a senior community; Facing/entry level: 1
• Construction: Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Private pool and spa; Property has a view; Main-level entry

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $245k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $249k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,891
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -24.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 La Lomita #3	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$213	81
20 La Encina	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	16mo	$330,000	$286	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $25,725
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $82,298
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91320

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,362	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,190	+5% $1,104	+10% $1,017
Rent	-10% $899	-5% $1,044	+0% $1,190	+5% $1,335	+10% $1,481
Rate	-1.0pp $1,315	-0.5pp $1,253	base $1,190	+0.5pp $1,125	+1.0pp $1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1194 Vista Canyon Ln Newbury Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$3,800	$2.75	45d	1	0.16mi
1194 Vista Conyon #17 Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	25d	1	0.16mi
3444 Melvin Ct Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1308	$3,600	$2.75	11d	1	0.84mi
198 San Vincente Cir Newbury Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,500	$2.62	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $249,000 Active 1011-char remark
4. 2011-10-26
   soldstatus $68,000 Closed 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

5. 2011-10-11
   historical 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

6. 2011-09-20
   historical Contingent 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

7. 2011-09-07
   price $59,700 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

8. 2011-07-26
   listed $67,500 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only. -Fireplace Rooms:None-Disability Access:2+ Access Exits, Doors - Swing In, No Interior Steps (N)-Eating Areas:Dining Area, Kitchen Island

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,537
• − Management: −$3,537
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $10,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,631
• After-tax cash flow: $11,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,472
• Household income: $148,991
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -917.39%
• Current HPI: 283.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+268.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — CSMAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $249,000 CSMAR
• 2011-10-26 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-11 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2011-09-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2011-09-07 Price Changed $59,700 CRMLS
• 2011-07-26 Listed $67,500 CRMLS