1300 Lois St · Bay City, TX 77414

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 7,501 sqft lot $24/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of Bay City, TX, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers great potential for buyers looking to invest in a growing community. Situated in the Bay City Original Townsite, the property is close to local schools, parks, and amenities. This spacious 2,115 sqft home sits on a 7,500 sqft lot, offering ample yard space. Built in 1983, the property has solid construction with wood siding and a composition shingle roof, but it requires cosmetic updates throughout. The home is vacant and ready for renovation, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or homeowners looking for a project. Don't miss out on this chance to own a property in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood with easy access to TX-35.

Key facts

• Solid construction
• Wood siding
• Easy access to tx-35

Tags

• AMPLE YARD SPACE
• SOLID CONSTRUCTION
• WOOD SIDING
• COMPOSITION SHINGLE ROOF
• EASY ACCESS TO TX-35

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $928 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.6% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.56%
• DSCR: 4.54
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,826
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -74.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $51,493
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $122,939
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $928

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3112 15th St Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$1,800	$0.91	44d	1	1.35mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	1.36mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   Located in the heart of Bay City, TX, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers great potential for buyers looking to invest in a growing community. Situated in the Bay City Original Townsite, the property is close to local schools, parks, and amenities. This spacious 2,115 sqft home sits on a 7,500 sqft lot, offering ample yard space. Built in 1983, the property has solid construction with wood siding and a composition shingle roof, but it requires cosmetic updates throughout. The home is vacant and ready for renovation, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or homeowners looking for a project. Don't miss out on this chance to own a property in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood with easy access to TX-35.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $50,000 Active 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   Located in the heart of Bay City, TX, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers great potential for buyers looking to invest in a growing community. Situated in the Bay City Original Townsite, the property is close to local schools, parks, and amenities. This spacious 2,115 sqft home sits on a 7,500 sqft lot, offering ample yard space. Built in 1983, the property has solid construction with wood siding and a composition shingle roof, but it requires cosmetic updates throughout. The home is vacant and ready for renovation, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or homeowners looking for a project. Don't miss out on this chance to own a property in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood with easy access to TX-35.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $10,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,639
• After-tax cash flow: $8,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $50,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,565 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.