4851 S Farm Road 137 · Springfield, MO 65810

$252,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1965 0.68 ac lot $135/sqft · 18% below area Est $309k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Down payment assistance available! Nestled on a spacious lot in the highly desirable Kickapoo High School district, this charming Colonial-style home offers the perfect blend of character and comfort. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the home welcomes you with warm, inviting living spaces throughout. Cozy up by one of the two fireplaces, including a fireplace in the dining room and a private fireplace retreat in the primary bedroom. The large screened back porch provides the ideal space for relaxing evenings, entertaining guests, or enjoying the fresh air. Major recent updates include the furnace, water main, and septic system all completed within the last year and roof and gutters in th

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Major recent updates
• Two fireplaces

Tags

• TWO FIREPLACES
• LARGE SCREENED BACK PORCH
• MAJOR RECENT UPDATES
• EXPANSIVE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached/attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Garage faces front; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential home; Two levels; Vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered, screened rear porch; Shed(s) / outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Disposal; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) in bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air, natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Walk-in closets; Window coverings and blinds; Masonry wood-burning fireplace (serving bedroom and dining room areas); Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Middle (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #40 of 391 statewide, top 10%, 758 students, 27% FRL); Kickapoo High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,881 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 46% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Springfield R-XII average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $253k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,786 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,669
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -18.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2983 W Teton Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+3%)	1mo	$440,000	$229	78
4445 S Farm Road 137	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,877 (+0%)	2mo	$250,000	$133	76
2325 W Alta St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,940 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$147	68
4715 S Wildwood Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,108 (+13%)	2mo	$260,000	$123	61
2759 W Buena Vista St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	2mo	$234,900	$132	60
4911 S Sycamore Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,065 (+10%)	3mo	$474,995	$230	60
2301 W Camino Alto St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-3%)	2mo	$379,900	$209	60
3039 W Teton Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,117 (+13%)	2mo	$399,995	$189	59
5114 S Forest Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-12%)	1mo	$324,900	$198	54
4530 S Shady Lane Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-9%)	1mo	$339,900	$199	48
2041 W Buena Vista St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-11%)	1mo	$308,000	$185	43
2725 W Camino Alto St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,151 (+15%)	2mo	$255,000	$119	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,812
• Equity at exit: $37,708

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,045
• Equity at exit: $21,866

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65810

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,147/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $252,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 W Cardinal St Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	2009	$2,295	$1.14	13d	1	0.58mi
2183 W Arlington St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,995	$1.08	23d	1	0.68mi
5773 Trailside Cir W Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1688	$3,195	$1.89	13d	4	1.24mi
1504 W High Point Cir Springfield, MO	3.0	2.5	2031	$1,925	$0.95	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $252,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $252,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $257,900 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $259,900 Active 876-char remark
17. 2025-03-21
    historical $1,550
18. 2025-03-12
    listed $1,550
19. 2025-02-27
    historical $1,550
20. 2025-01-16
    listed $1,550
21. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus
22. 2011-07-08
    soldstatus $139,000
23. 2009-08-19
    soldstatus $139,000
24. 2008-10-31
    listed $149,900
25. 2008-04-28
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,306/yr (+$109/mo · 113.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,147
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable loss: −$975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $3,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $95,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.67%
• Current HPI: 194.8736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+68.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $252,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $257,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-15 Listed $259,900 SOMO
• 2025-03-21 Rental Removed $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-12 Listed for Rent $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-27 Rental Removed $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-16 Listed for Rent $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2016-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-31 Listed $149,900 SOMO
• 2008-04-28 Listed $149,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,147 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.