616 W Hillsdale Dr · Jackson, MS 39209

$75,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1952 10,018 sqft lot $45/sqft · 38% above area Est $54k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime investment opportunity with this Tenant income producing property ! Tenant pays $950/MO Owner Financing available on this unit Good terms available, call listing agent for better details.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.09%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,273
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 38.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Fair Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,823 (+10%)	1mo	$54,000	$30	75
5146 Andover Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,637 (-1%)	20mo	$85,000	$52	60
5113 Queen Eleanor Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+1%)	19mo	$114,000	$68	52
4867 Rosehaven Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,449 (-13%)	5mo	$52,500	$36	50
5219 Queen Eleanor Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-14%)	2mo	$108,500	$76	42
214 Manchester Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,466 (-12%)	14mo	$65,000	$44	39
5386 Wynndike Rd Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,470 (-11%)	16mo	$63,500	$43	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $72,176
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.95×
• Total profit: $187,950
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39209

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Barbara Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1584	$850	$0.54	21d	1	0.35mi
5301 Queen Mary Ln Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,338	$1.22	13d	1	0.52mi
5629 Queen Mary Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,395	$1.10	13d	1	1.03mi
4539 Ritchey Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,250	$1.09	43d	1	1.30mi
264 Sewanee Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1217	$995	$0.82	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $75,000 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity with this Tenant income producing property ! Tenant pays $950/MO Owner Financing available on this unit Good terms available, call listing agent for better details.

18. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus
19. 2022-04-29
    historical
20. 2021-12-28
    listed $55,000 Active
21. 1986-02-24
    soldstatus
22. 1980-05-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $4,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,776
• Household income: $36,344
• Rent vs Own: 52.3% rent · 47.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 7% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 312.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2023-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-12-28 Listed $55,000 MLSU
• 1986-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.