862 Battersea Dr · Nocatee, FL 32095

$465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2012 7,840 sqft lot Est $466k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully decorated home in St. Johns County with all the upgrades of granite countertops, stainless appliances and upgraded lighting! This house has lake view and your own herb garden..the Rosemary smells wonderful! NO CDD Fees!! Just minutes away from US1 and I-95. This won't last long so make an appointment today!

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual association fee(s) listed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fees; Association amenities include basketball court, children's pool, park, pickleball, playground, racquetball, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Block construction; Stone veneer exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio; Patio; Pond on the property; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Primary bath with tub and separate shower; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $430k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $345k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palencia Elementary School (math 82% / reading 80%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 781 students, 15% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($437k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $262k; list at $465k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $345,498 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,696
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
862 Battersea Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,079 (0%)	0mo	$465,000	$224	100
51 Otero Pt	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+2%)	1mo	$421,000	$198	72
157 Otero Pt	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,064 (-1%)	2mo	$456,000	$221	69
150 Otero Pt	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+2%)	0mo	$482,500	$227	68
244 Los Caminos St	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,293 (+10%)	2mo	$460,000	$201	63
113 Otero Pt	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (+10%)	1mo	$510,500	$224	52
28 Riachuelo Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (-11%)	2mo	$406,000	$219	52
170 Otero Pt	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,006 (-4%)	22mo	$537,000	$268	38
369 Medio Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,360 (+14%)	23mo	$665,000	$282	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-92,269
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-113,948
• Equity at exit: $40,205

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,755/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $430,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-66	+0% $-197	+5% $-329	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-334	+0% $-197	+5% $-61	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-79	base $-197	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Riachuelo Ln Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.5	2806	$3,195	$1.14	24d	1	0.51mi
36 Privado Ct Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.5	2737	$4,700	$1.72	4d	1	0.53mi
554 Market St St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	2350	$3,500	$1.49	18d	1	1.04mi
544 Market St St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	2450	$3,500	$1.43	24d	1	1.05mi
717 Cypress Crossing Trl Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	3.0	2632	$3,600	$1.37	15d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $465,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $465,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $465,000 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $465,000 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $465,000 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $465,000 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
7. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2026-03-30
   listed $465,000 Active
9. 2016-11-02
   soldstatus $262,500
10. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus $262,500 Sold 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Beautifully decorated home in St. Johns County with all the upgrades of granite countertops, stainless appliances and upgraded lighting! This house has lake view and your own herb garden..the Rosemary smells wonderful! NO CDD Fees!! Just minutes away from US1 and I-95. This won't last long so make an appointment today!

11. 2016-09-01
    status Pending 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Beautifully decorated home in St. Johns County with all the upgrades of granite countertops, stainless appliances and upgraded lighting! This house has lake view and your own herb garden..the Rosemary smells wonderful! NO CDD Fees!! Just minutes away from US1 and I-95. This won't last long so make an appointment today!

12. 2016-08-05
    price $269,900 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Beautifully decorated home in St. Johns County with all the upgrades of granite countertops, stainless appliances and upgraded lighting! This house has lake view and your own herb garden..the Rosemary smells wonderful! NO CDD Fees!! Just minutes away from US1 and I-95. This won't last long so make an appointment today!

13. 2016-08-05
    listed $274,900 Active 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Beautifully decorated home in St. Johns County with all the upgrades of granite countertops, stainless appliances and upgraded lighting! This house has lake view and your own herb garden..the Rosemary smells wonderful! NO CDD Fees!! Just minutes away from US1 and I-95. This won't last long so make an appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,755 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,105/yr (+$92/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$2,755
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,317
• − Management: −$3,317
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$10,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,546
• After-tax cash flow: $177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $465,000 realMLS
• 2016-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $262,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) $262,500 realMLS
• 2016-09-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2016-08-05 Price Changed $269,900 realMLS
• 2016-08-05 Listed $274,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,755 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.