1011 Salem Pl · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18436

$419,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 2020 0.34 ac lot $199/sqft · 11% below area Est $472k · 11% under $195/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1011 Salem Place in Lake Ariel. This three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering a peaceful setting with minimal traffic. The home offers a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make it your own, whether you're planning to live here year-round or use it as a weekend getaway in the Poconos. Furniture and a golf cart are included, making it move-in ready and perfect for enjoying the community right away. Conveniently located near local shops, lakes, and outdoor recreation. Come start enjoying life at the lake!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Outdoor recreation
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• MOVE-IN READY
• NEAR LOCAL SHOPS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (52.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (50.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (52.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack North Intrmd Sch (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #733 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 471 students, 63% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $419k implies a 4090% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $198,606 (52.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.76%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,736
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -11.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 Ski Bluff Ter	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+9%)	0mo	$475,000	$207	71
1007 Deer Trail Rd	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-5%)	14mo	$354,000	$177	68
1115 Mustang Rd	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,242 (+6%)	7mo	$496,500	$221	67
1096 Aquarius Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,334 (+11%)	2mo	$725,000	$311	66
1151 Mustang Rd	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,845 (-12%)	6mo	$420,000	$228	63
1035 Mustang Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,061 (-2%)	17mo	$249,000	$121	61
1007 Apache Ct	0.50mi	3/3.0	2,014 (-4%)	10mo	$395,500	$196	59
1112 Aquarius Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,855 (-12%)	10mo	$609,000	$328	58
1071 Sunrise Ter	0.21mi	3/3.0	2,337 (+11%)	15mo	$440,000	$188	57
1050 Green Valley Cir	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,168 (+3%)	10mo	$315,000	$145	51
1092 Mohican Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,352 (+12%)	9mo	$350,000	$149	48
1008 Sunset Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+14%)	19mo	$339,000	$141	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $148,770
• Equity at exit: $377,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $500,654
• Equity at exit: $814,025

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,953/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-1,248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,666

Max offer price $198,606

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,010	-5% $-1,129	+0% $-1,248	+5% $-1,366	+10% $-1,485
Rent	-10% $-1,412	-5% $-1,330	+0% $-1,248	+5% $-1,165	+10% $-1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,037	-0.5pp $-1,141	base $-1,248	+0.5pp $-1,356	+1.0pp $-1,467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-01-26
    listed $434,000 Active 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (572 chars)

    Welcome to 1011 Salem Place in Lake Ariel. This three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering a peaceful setting with minimal traffic. The home offers a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make it your own, whether you're planning to live here year-round or use it as a weekend getaway in the Poconos. Furniture and a golf cart are included, making it move-in ready and perfect for enjoying the community right away. Conveniently located near local shops, lakes, and outdoor recreation. Come start enjoying life at the lake!

17. 2025-06-03
    listed $439,000 Active
18. 2020-10-08
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,953 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,287 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,333/yr (+$111/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$3,953
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$23,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+4240.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $434,000 PWMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $439,000 PWMLS
• 2020-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,953 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.