23840 Geneva Trl · Montmorency, MI 49709

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,523 sqft · SingleFamily · 210 Days on market

Built 1970 $89/sqft · 11% below area Est $253k · 11% under $100/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Open House Sunday 5/24/26 1p. m. - 4p. m. * * * Beautiful home overlooking Lake Geneva and the beach on CCR. This 5-bedroom home has a large kitchen with an open floor plan. There is a beautiful gas fireplace in the living room and a sunroom that overlooks the lake. There are 4 bedrooms up and one in the mostly finished lower level. The outdoor living space is awesome with a firepit to enjoy those lake views. Beautifully landscaped yard and a patio in the back. Addition built in 1993. Canada Creek Ranch is a private club offering 13,500 acres with 5 lakes and 2 blue ribbon trout streams. There is a beach with pavilion, The Ranch House with a Dining Room with excellent food, a hotel and campground, gun and archery ranges, disk golf and the Outback - hunting area.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gas fireplace
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OVERLOOKING LAKE GENEVA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SUNROOM
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (41.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Atlanta Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #546 of 760 in MI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $132,315 (41.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.66%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,187
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -11.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $90,206
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $291,078
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49709

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,152/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $135,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-380	-5% $-443	+0% $-507	+5% $-571	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-612	-5% $-559	+0% $-507	+5% $-455	+10% $-403
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-450	base $-507	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $224,900 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $224,900 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-04-06
    price $234,900 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    * * * Open House Sunday 5/24/26 1p. m. - 4p. m. * * * Beautiful home overlooking Lake Geneva and the beach on CCR. This 5-bedroom home has a large kitchen with an open floor plan. There is a beautiful gas fireplace in the living room and a sunroom that overlooks the lake. There are 4 bedrooms up and one in the mostly finished lower level. The outdoor living space is awesome with a firepit to enjoy those lake views. Beautifully landscaped yard and a patio in the back. Addition built in 1993. Canada Creek Ranch is a private club offering 13,500 acres with 5 lakes and 2 blue ribbon trout streams. There is a beach with pavilion, The Ranch House with a Dining Room with excellent food, a hotel and campground, gun and archery ranges, disk golf and the Outback - hunting area.

12. 2026-03-28
    status Active 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    * * * Open House Sunday 5/24/26 1p. m. - 4p. m. * * * Beautiful home overlooking Lake Geneva and the beach on CCR. This 5-bedroom home has a large kitchen with an open floor plan. There is a beautiful gas fireplace in the living room and a sunroom that overlooks the lake. There are 4 bedrooms up and one in the mostly finished lower level. The outdoor living space is awesome with a firepit to enjoy those lake views. Beautifully landscaped yard and a patio in the back. Addition built in 1993. Canada Creek Ranch is a private club offering 13,500 acres with 5 lakes and 2 blue ribbon trout streams. There is a beach with pavilion, The Ranch House with a Dining Room with excellent food, a hotel and campground, gun and archery ranges, disk golf and the Outback - hunting area.

13. 2026-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    * * * Open House Sunday 5/24/26 1p. m. - 4p. m. * * * Beautiful home overlooking Lake Geneva and the beach on CCR. This 5-bedroom home has a large kitchen with an open floor plan. There is a beautiful gas fireplace in the living room and a sunroom that overlooks the lake. There are 4 bedrooms up and one in the mostly finished lower level. The outdoor living space is awesome with a firepit to enjoy those lake views. Beautifully landscaped yard and a patio in the back. Addition built in 1993. Canada Creek Ranch is a private club offering 13,500 acres with 5 lakes and 2 blue ribbon trout streams. There is a beach with pavilion, The Ranch House with a Dining Room with excellent food, a hotel and campground, gun and archery ranges, disk golf and the Outback - hunting area.

14. 2025-11-12
    listed $259,000 Active 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    * * * Open House Sunday 5/24/26 1p. m. - 4p. m. * * * Beautiful home overlooking Lake Geneva and the beach on CCR. This 5-bedroom home has a large kitchen with an open floor plan. There is a beautiful gas fireplace in the living room and a sunroom that overlooks the lake. There are 4 bedrooms up and one in the mostly finished lower level. The outdoor living space is awesome with a firepit to enjoy those lake views. Beautifully landscaped yard and a patio in the back. Addition built in 1993. Canada Creek Ranch is a private club offering 13,500 acres with 5 lakes and 2 blue ribbon trout streams. There is a beach with pavilion, The Ranch House with a Dining Room with excellent food, a hotel and campground, gun and archery ranges, disk golf and the Outback - hunting area.

15. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus $200,000
16. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus $200,000
17. 2021-05-31
    listed $200,000
18. 2018-10-08
    soldstatus $138,000
19. 2017-09-06
    listed $166,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,152 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,152
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$10,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,004
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #12347
• State rank: #546 of 760 in MI

Livability — Montmorency

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canada Creek Ranch, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,524

Population outlook (Montmorency County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,233 people
• By 2030: 7,575 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 6,202 · -24.7%
• By 2050: 5,081 · -38.3%
• By 2075: 3,119 · -62.1%
• By 2100: 1,923 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montmorency

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.6% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+44.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.88%
• Current HPI: 361.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+41.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $234,900 WWMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $259,000 WWMLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $200,000 WWMLS
• 2021-05-31 Listed $200,000 WWMLS
• 2018-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-06 Listed $166,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,152 · +109.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.