1410 Co Rd 1727 · Holly Pond, AL 35083

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · Manufactured public records · 203 Days on market

Built 2000 0.50 ac lot $79/sqft · 29% below area Est $241k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must See!!!! This 3 bedroom 2 bath 2400 sq ft Triple wide on Permanent Foundation on half acre in Holly Pond. Home features extra large living room for entertaining or family to gather and enjoy gas log fireplace. Master bedroom has large walk in closet and extra large master bathroom. Home has sun room and large size laundry room with storage shelf. There is attached carport and workshop/storage area for endless possibilities of use for this area. New Roof & remolded in 2011. HVAC outside unit new 2015. Gas tank is owned by seller. Owners (mother) preferred to use window unit & Gas Heater instead of the HVAC unit. Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all of importance.

Key facts

• Sun room
• Permanent foundation
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• EXTRA LARGE LIVING ROOM
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EXTRA LARGE MASTER BATHROOM
• SUN ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-598/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Holly Pond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#326 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Cullman County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #49 of 129 in AL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Cullman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,317 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,689
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -29.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $89,379
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $265,746
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35083

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $162,689

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    status Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Must See!!!! This 3 bedroom 2 bath 2400 sq ft Triple wide on Permanent Foundation on half acre in Holly Pond. Home features extra large living room for entertaining or family to gather and enjoy gas log fireplace. Master bedroom has large walk in closet and extra large master bathroom. Home has sun room and large size laundry room with storage shelf. There is attached carport and workshop/storage area for endless possibilities of use for this area. New Roof & remolded in 2011. HVAC outside unit new 2015. Gas tank is owned by seller. Owners (mother) preferred to use window unit & Gas Heater instead of the HVAC unit. Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all of importance.

18. 2026-04-14
    historical Active Under Contract 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Must See!!!! This 3 bedroom 2 bath 2400 sq ft Triple wide on Permanent Foundation on half acre in Holly Pond. Home features extra large living room for entertaining or family to gather and enjoy gas log fireplace. Master bedroom has large walk in closet and extra large master bathroom. Home has sun room and large size laundry room with storage shelf. There is attached carport and workshop/storage area for endless possibilities of use for this area. New Roof & remolded in 2011. HVAC outside unit new 2015. Gas tank is owned by seller. Owners (mother) preferred to use window unit & Gas Heater instead of the HVAC unit. Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all of importance.

19. 2026-01-13
    price $169,900 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Must See!!!! This 3 bedroom 2 bath 2400 sq ft Triple wide on Permanent Foundation on half acre in Holly Pond. Home features extra large living room for entertaining or family to gather and enjoy gas log fireplace. Master bedroom has large walk in closet and extra large master bathroom. Home has sun room and large size laundry room with storage shelf. There is attached carport and workshop/storage area for endless possibilities of use for this area. New Roof & remolded in 2011. HVAC outside unit new 2015. Gas tank is owned by seller. Owners (mother) preferred to use window unit & Gas Heater instead of the HVAC unit. Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all of importance.

20. 2025-11-25
    listed $179,900 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Must See!!!! This 3 bedroom 2 bath 2400 sq ft Triple wide on Permanent Foundation on half acre in Holly Pond. Home features extra large living room for entertaining or family to gather and enjoy gas log fireplace. Master bedroom has large walk in closet and extra large master bathroom. Home has sun room and large size laundry room with storage shelf. There is attached carport and workshop/storage area for endless possibilities of use for this area. New Roof & remolded in 2011. HVAC outside unit new 2015. Gas tank is owned by seller. Owners (mother) preferred to use window unit & Gas Heater instead of the HVAC unit. Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all of importance.

21. 2016-03-02
    listed $74,900
22. 2014-03-11
    listed $74,900
23. 2013-07-29
    listed $78,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cullman County
• NCES district ID: 0101020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,449
• Composite: 28.39/100
• National rank: #6767
• State rank: #49 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holly Pond

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #19930

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,276

Population outlook (Cullman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,522 people
• By 2030: 85,402 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 86,152 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 85,202 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 79,679 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 66,943 · -20.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cullman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.5) · D 9.4% · R 89.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -65.2pp · 2024: -80.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.5 2020: R+77.4 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+69.5 2008: R+65.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.05%
• Current HPI: 258.1263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+115.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — SAARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — SAARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $169,900 SAARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $179,900 SAARMLS
• 2016-03-02 Listed $74,900 SAARMLS
• 2014-03-11 Listed $74,900 SAARMLS
• 2013-07-29 Listed $78,800 SAARMLS

Property tax history

+41.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.