2372 John Montgomery Cir · Pea Ridge, AR 72751

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2001 $112/sqft · 8% below area Est $240k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this investment opportunity. Up to $3000 in buying closing cost paid. Good tenants in place, no need to look for them. Huge fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Built 2001
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pea Ridge School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #43 of 238 in AR (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,522 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,000
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2535 Wmb Franklin Ave	0.14mi	3/3.0	1,960 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$122	87
2380 John Montgomery Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,184 (+11%)	17mo	$244,000	$112	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $93,828
• Equity at exit: $159,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $264,151
• Equity at exit: $309,217

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72751

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2720 Gorman St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	14d	1	0.27mi
2813 Reynolds St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,795	$1.26	14d	1	0.34mi
2608 Chittick St Pea Ridge, AR	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,795	$1.10	43d	1	0.35mi
1910 Hahn St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,900	$1.22	43d	1	0.55mi
2301 Langford St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,800	$1.10	21d	1	0.55mi
1812 Seay Cir Pea Ridge, AR	4.0	2.5	1854	$1,900	$1.02	44d	1	1.23mi
1036 Tracey Ln Pea Ridge, AR	4.0	2.0	1911	$2,075	$1.09	23d	1	1.30mi
1006 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	1.32mi
1002 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	1.32mi
942 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	1.33mi
940 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	1.34mi
938 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	1.34mi
938 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	23d	1	1.34mi
1393 Hutchinson St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,675	$1.06	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $220,000 Active 186-char remark
14. 2017-12-14
    soldstatus $78,000
15. 2017-12-07
    soldstatus $78,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Don't miss this investment opportunity. Up to $3000 in buying closing cost paid. Good tenants in place, no need to look for them. Huge fenced backyard.

16. 2016-10-10
    listed $90,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Don't miss this investment opportunity. Up to $3000 in buying closing cost paid. Good tenants in place, no need to look for them. Huge fenced backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$477/yr (+$40/mo · 51.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$420
• After-tax cash flow: $2,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pea Ridge School District
• NCES district ID: 0503030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,156
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4546
• State rank: #43 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pea Ridge, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 9,997
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 9,997
• Household income: $95,299
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 83.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.48%
• Current HPI: 352.7133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-07 Sold (MLS) $78,000 NWARMLS
• 2016-10-10 Listed $90,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.