1422 Kappa St · Pasadena, TX 77504

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1971 4,691 sqft lot $151/sqft · 12% below area Est $182k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three-bedroom, two bath home with a one car garage. “This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/30/2026.”

Key facts

• 4,691 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1971; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 13); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 9 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (Central Air)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Teague El (math 21% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 758 students, 78% FRL); Carter Lomax Middle (math 32% / reading 39%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 632 students, 74% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,127 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,460
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -12.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Pi Cir	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,084 (+3%)	7mo	$220,000	$203	82
1414 N Circle Park St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+7%)	8mo	$139,000	$123	77
1231 Gamma St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,082 (+2%)	14mo	$214,900	$199	77
1402 S Circle Park St	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,133 (+7%)	9mo	$214,900	$190	71
1422 Kenwick Pl	0.41mi	3/1.5	992 (-6%)	2mo	$224,999	$227	68
1411 Epsilon St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+8%)	14mo	$214,850	$189	68
1218 Gamma St	0.17mi	3/1.5	950 (-10%)	11mo	$215,000	$226	66
1406 Chippawa Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	11mo	$210,000	$191	64
1210 Kenwick Pl	0.45mi	3/1.5	997 (-6%)	7mo	$214,900	$216	64
1602 Wentwood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,013 (-4%)	7mo	$239,800	$237	63
1706 Chippawa Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+11%)	6mo	$219,990	$187	55
1215 Kenwick Pl	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,168 (+10%)	9mo	$220,000	$188	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-35,116
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,940
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77504

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,805/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $141,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-61	+0% $-106	+5% $-152	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-166	+0% $-106	+5% $-46	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-66	base $-106	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1302 Gamma St Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.5	980	$1,625	$1.66	45d	1	0.12mi
4747 Burke Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,212	$1.64	6d	1	0.56mi
4747 Burke Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,212	$1.64	1d	1	0.56mi
4025 Burke Rd Unit 4082 Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,106	$1.38	1d	1	0.88mi
4025 Burke Rd Unit 4058 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,613	$1.46	1d	1	0.88mi
4201 Fairmont Pkwy Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,790	$2.06	1d	59	1.05mi
4209 Colombia Dr Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,785	$1.53	45d	1	1.15mi
13099 Fuqua St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	953	$1,517	$1.59	26d	1	1.18mi
3602 Burke Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	881	$1,375	$1.56	7d	1	1.24mi
3602 Burke Rd Unit 3659 Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,184	$1.09	1d	1	1.24mi
3907 Ecuador Dr Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	1090	$1,100	$1.01	45d	1	1.24mi
4343 Shaver St Apt 426 Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	951	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	1.32mi
5045 Crenshaw Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,163	$2.21	0d	16	1.39mi
4100 Vista Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,670	$1.92	4d	15	1.43mi
4100 Vista Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,735	$2.00	0d	11	1.43mi
4300 Shaver St Apt 11 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	891	$1,110	$1.25	45d	1	1.43mi
5051 Crenshaw Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,560	$1.50	45d	1	1.45mi
4000 Lily St Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,672	$1.61	13d	1	1.46mi
4817 E Sam Houston Pkwy S Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,655	$1.62	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Pending 32 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Pending 31 DOM
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $159,900 Active 159-char remark
5. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus
6. 2026-04-11
   historical
7. 2026-03-20
   status Active
8. 2026-03-20
   price $210,000
9. 2025-11-25
   status Pending
10. 2025-11-20
    historical
11. 2025-11-18
    listed $185,000 Active
12. 2023-06-17
    historical
13. 2023-06-13
    status Active
14. 2023-05-05
    historical
15. 2023-05-03
    status Active
16. 2023-03-31
    historical
17. 2023-03-17
    listed $209,900 Active
18. 2023-03-15
    historical
19. 2023-02-24
    historical
20. 2023-02-09
    price $210,000
21. 2023-01-18
    price $215,000
22. 2022-11-09
    listed $225,000 Active
23. 2018-05-17
    soldstatus
24. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2018-04-23
    status Pending
26. 2018-04-16
    status Option Pending
27. 2018-04-11
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$4,805
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $-337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,190
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,779
• Household income: $51,478
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 47% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.91%
• Current HPI: 264.4782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-15 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-09 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,805 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.