9179 Montgomery Rd · Pymatuning Central, PA 16424

$97,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1960 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage offers the flexibility to be enjoyed either year-round or as a seasonal retreat, making it an ideal option for a getaway. This property is located close to Pymatuning Lake, offering convenient access for outdoor activities. Additionally, the Orchard boat launch is only four streets away, making it easy to enjoy boating and other water activities whenever you wish. Conveniently located near Jamestown, Conneaut Lake, and the Linesville communities, this property allows you to easily explore and take advantage of the unique attractions, activities, and local charm that each town has to offer. When not in use us as an Airbnb or Vrbo rental to pay the bills. Start

Key facts

• Orchard boat launch
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• PYMATUNING LAKE ACCESS
• ORCHARD BOAT LAUNCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: C-RES

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Total 2 parking spaces (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, Electric range, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Electric oven, Electric range, Microwave, Refrigerator; No central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,181 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,037 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.15%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $69,491
• Equity at exit: $77,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $182,257
• Equity at exit: $156,656

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16424

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $736/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $97,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,138 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$34/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$736
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $3,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$857
• After-tax cash flow: $4,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pymatuning Central

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1181
• US rank: #13811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pymatuning Central, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.48%
• Current HPI: 276.8388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $97,500 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $736 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.