999 S Santa Fe Ave #51 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$47,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1971 $77/sqft · 170% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home located in a comfortable, family-friendly park. This home offers a cozy layout with great natural light and plenty of potential to make it your own. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, it’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for affordable living in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1971
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $331 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $48k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,589 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.70%
• DSCR: 5.26
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $20,500
• List price: $47,900
• Delta: 133.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
999 S Santa Fe #48	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (0%)	1mo	$20,500	$33	90
999 S Santa Fe Ave #36	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (0%)	19mo	$38,000	$61	75
258 W 7th St #51	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	672 (+8%)	6mo	$18,000	$27	65
1600 S San Jacinto Ave #114	0.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	660 (+6%)	16mo	$8,000	$12	45
1600 S San Jacinto Ave #83	0.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	550 (-12%)	20mo	$39,599	$72	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $59,690
• Equity at exit: $7,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.21×
• Total profit: $136,959
• Equity at exit: $4,142

Cash invested: $13,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $119/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $356

Max offer price $47,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,097	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,056	+10% $1,043
Rent	-10% $935	-5% $1,002	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,137	+10% $1,205
Rate	-1.0pp $1,094	-0.5pp $1,082	base $1,070	+0.5pp $1,057	+1.0pp $1,045

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,975
• Closing costs: $1,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
320 S Pico Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	44d	1	0.45mi
359 N Wateka St San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	440	$1,425	$3.24	0d	1	0.93mi
700 E Main St Unit 08 San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	25d	1	0.95mi
811 E Menlo Ave Unit 02 Hemet, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,300	$2.36	44d	1	1.39mi
811 E Menlo Ave Apt 12 Hemet, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,300	$2.36	25d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $47,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,999 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,999 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,999 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,999 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,999 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,999 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,999 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,999 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,999 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $47,999 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,999 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,999 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,999 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $47,999 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home located in a comfortable, family-friendly park. This home offers a cozy layout with great natural light and plenty of potential to make it your own. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, it’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for affordable living in a welcoming community.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $50,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home located in a comfortable, family-friendly park. This home offers a cozy layout with great natural light and plenty of potential to make it your own. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, it’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for affordable living in a welcoming community.

18. 2026-02-03
    status Active
19. 2026-02-02
    historical
20. 2025-12-02
    price $35,000
21. 2025-11-06
    price $60,000
22. 2025-10-25
    price $24,999
23. 2025-10-09
    price $27,999
24. 2025-09-08
    price $33,999
25. 2025-09-02
    listed $34,000 Active
26. 2025-08-17
    historical
27. 2025-07-12
    price $34,000
28. 2025-04-28
    price $40,000
29. 2025-03-18
    price $43,000
30. 2025-03-10
    historical
31. 2025-02-17
    listed $45,000 Active
32. 2025-02-11
    listed $43,000 Active
33. 2025-01-16
    historical
34. 2024-09-16
    listed $43,000 Active
35. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus $23,000 Closed Sale
36. 2023-12-21
    listed $27,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $119 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 205.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,683
• − Property taxes: −$119
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$1,393
• Taxable income: $12,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,072
• After-tax cash flow: $9,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+74.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $47,999 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $60,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $24,999 CRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $27,999 CRMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $33,999 CRMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $43,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $43,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $43,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (MLS) $23,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-21 Listed $27,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $119 · +454.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.