1419 Progress Ave · Lincoln Park, MI 48146

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1927 3,920 sqft lot Est $171k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lincoln Park duplex with long term tenants. Lower tenant has lived there for over 40 years, upper tenant has been there for approximately 7 years. Lower with full basement, upper with enclosed rear porch. Driveway and street parking.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Full basement
• Enclosed rear porch

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• DRIVEWAY
• STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property configured as multi-family residential income (2 units); Each unit is 2-bedroom, 1-bath

Exterior

• Parking: Garage available; On-street parking; Paved parking areas
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property (multi-family); Two-story building; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built with asbestos and other materials; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed porch; Paved road access; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full unfinished basement; Private entrance
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.4% in Lincoln Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#82 in MI, #1,720 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Park School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #440 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,982
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2933 Fort Park Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,563 (+8%)	1mo	$206,000	$132	79
1133 Mill St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	1mo	$170,000	$112	67
1417 Lincoln Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-6%)	3mo	$160,000	$117	66
1648 Capitol Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (+10%)	1mo	$180,000	$113	62
1060 Capitol Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,548 (+7%)	1mo	$95,000	$61	62
1472 Philomene Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+9%)	0mo	$185,000	$118	56
1683 Pagel Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,338 (-8%)	3mo	$207,000	$155	52
1045 Detroit Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,650 (+14%)	2mo	$181,000	$110	51
1644 Stewart Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-11%)	4mo	$155,000	$121	49
1772 Richmond Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+14%)	3mo	$140,000	$85	48
3406 Ferris Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (-8%)	3mo	$195,000	$146	48
782 Cleveland Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,298 (-10%)	3mo	$160,000	$123	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $369
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $40,932
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48146

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,350/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1473 Empire Ave Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	2d	1	1.15mi
9725 Fox Ave Allen Park, MI	3.0	1.5	940	$1,850	$1.97	44d	1	1.22mi
357 Emmons Blvd Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	2d	1	1.23mi
1774 College Ave Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	944	$1,525	$1.62	2d	1	1.40mi
4163 Burns Ave Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	1.44mi
854 Harrison Blvd Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $150,000 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Lincoln Park duplex with long term tenants. Lower tenant has lived there for over 40 years, upper tenant has been there for approximately 7 years. Lower with full basement, upper with enclosed rear porch. Driveway and street parking.

16. 2026-05-12
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Lincoln Park duplex with long term tenants. Lower tenant has lived there for over 40 years, upper tenant has been there for approximately 7 years. Lower with full basement, upper with enclosed rear porch. Driveway and street parking.

17. 2025-01-02
    soldstatus $90,000
18. 2015-05-18
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,350
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,811
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Park School District
• NCES district ID: 2621600
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,486
• Composite: 19.93/100
• National rank: #8678
• State rank: #440 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lincoln Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1720

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln Park, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 39,257
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,257
• Household income: $58,616
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1142.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.25%
• Current HPI: 222.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,350 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.