238 Horseshoe Bnd · Florence, OR 97439

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

Built 1982 3,920 sqft lot $350/sqft · 5% below area Est $184k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Rv parking
• Bay-window

Tags

• ATTACHED BONUS ROOM
• BAY-WINDOW
• OPEN KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHTING
• RV PARKING
• OUTBUILDING FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $142,331 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,500
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $101,157
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $293,047
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $487/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    price $175,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

16. 2026-02-09
    price $179,500 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

17. 2026-01-09
    price $189,500 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

18. 2025-10-14
    price $199,750 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

19. 2025-09-17
    price $210,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

20. 2025-08-19
    listed $225,000 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    A charming Park model home in the desirable gated community of Coast Village. Wood siding and a ramada top to preserve the unit is only one aspect of longevity. Open floor plan kitchen/dining room and includes a bay-window; floor to ceiling. Ample 'built-in' storage inside, mirrored doors and natural lighting is a plus. A full bathroom with tub/shower combination. The lot/parcel location is RV parking, graveled with hookups; electric, water, and sewer. The detached outbuilding and patio is covered with more storage. The entire property is clean and well maintained; freshly painted. Landscaping has drip irrigation. Own the home and the land. Dues: $245/mos.: COMMONS, EXTMANT, GATED, MGMT, MTGROOM, POOL, PTYROOM, RDMAINT, REC-FAC, SAUNA, SEWER, TRASH, WATER. A must see! No background check required. Sold as listed; "As-Is".

21. 2023-06-06
    soldstatus $189,000 Closed 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Immaculate fully furnished Park Model with updated living room addition totaling 500 sq ft. Surprise yourself and come take a look for a great weekend getaway or full time living. Shop area plus storage room off concrete courtyard patio. Fenced on one side, separate driveway for additional parking.

22. 2023-06-06
    soldstatus $189,900

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Immaculate fully furnished Park Model with updated living room addition totaling 500 sq ft. Surprise yourself and come take a look for a great weekend getaway or full time living. Shop area plus storage room off concrete courtyard patio. Fenced on one side, separate driveway for additional parking.

23. 2023-06-03
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Immaculate fully furnished Park Model with updated living room addition totaling 500 sq ft. Surprise yourself and come take a look for a great weekend getaway or full time living. Shop area plus storage room off concrete courtyard patio. Fenced on one side, separate driveway for additional parking.

24. 2023-05-22
    listed $189,900 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Immaculate fully furnished Park Model with updated living room addition totaling 500 sq ft. Surprise yourself and come take a look for a great weekend getaway or full time living. Shop area plus storage room off concrete courtyard patio. Fenced on one side, separate driveway for additional parking.

25. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $130,000 Sold
26. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $130,000
27. 2020-11-23
    status Pending
28. 2020-11-23
    status Active
29. 2020-09-29
    status Pending
30. 2020-09-17
    status Active
31. 2020-08-20
    status Pending
32. 2020-07-24
    listed $132,000 Active
33. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus $70,000
34. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus $70,000
35. 2005-03-01
    listed $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $487 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,210/yr (+$101/mo · 248.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$487
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $1,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Florence

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #8094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+120.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $175,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $179,500 RMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $189,500 RMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $199,750 RMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $210,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $225,000 RMLS
• 2023-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2023-06-06 Sold (MLS) $189,000 RMLS
• 2023-06-03 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $189,900 RMLS
• 2020-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-01 Sold (MLS) $130,000 RMLS
• 2020-11-23 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-11-23 Relisted — RMLS
• 2020-09-29 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-09-17 Relisted — RMLS
• 2020-08-20 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-07-24 Listed $132,000 RMLS
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (MLS) $70,000 RMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listed $79,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $487 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.