7651 Lumen Ln #9 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Townhouse · 11 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition Est $302k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS!!! Check out the open green space behind this townhome!!! Waypoint by Traton Homes, a vibrant new community of townhomes located on Front Beach Road in Panama City Beach, Florida. Waypoint offers 72 homes just under 3 miles from the beach, 1.5 miles from Dolphin Bay, and approximately 20 miles from the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. Residents will enjoy easy access to local attractions, with Pier Park only 7 miles away and Hathaway Bridge nearby, serving as the gateway to Panama City proper. The community is also conveniently situated near the Naval and Coast Guard bases. Each townhome features 3 or 4 bedrooms, including a bedroom with a full bath on the main level. The open concept living space includes a modern kitchen with an island, a dining area, and a family room that opens to a private back patio. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bath with a double vanity, a shower, and a separate water closet. Two additional bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a conveniently located laundry room complete the upper level.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet
• Open green space

Tags

• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• VIBRANT NEW COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $244,663 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,710
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7670 Solana Ln #49	0.04mi	4/3.0	1,695 (0%)	10mo	$315,000	$186	89
7653 Solana Ln #8	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,695 (0%)	12mo	$329,900	$195	76
1753 Annabellas Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,596 (-6%)	9mo	$275,000	$172	51
1944 Pointe Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,496 (-12%)	8mo	$269,000	$180	49
7583 Shadow Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,496 (-12%)	11mo	$250,000	$167	48
1882 Annabella's Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-4%)	18mo	$249,900	$153	47
1602 Annabella'a Way	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,545 (-9%)	11mo	$275,000	$178	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,610
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,439
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $279,685

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	13d	6	0.23mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	0.25mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.31mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.31mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.58mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	0.59mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	13d	12	0.71mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	13d	18	0.78mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	13d	2	0.83mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.93mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	0.94mi
6422 W Highway 98 #206 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1916	$2,900	$1.51	21d	1	1.05mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $295,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $295,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $295,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    price $310,000 1115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1115 chars)

    NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS!!! Check out the open green space behind this townhome!!! Waypoint by Traton Homes, a vibrant new community of townhomes located on Front Beach Road in Panama City Beach, Florida. Waypoint offers 72 homes just under 3 miles from the beach, 1.5 miles from Dolphin Bay, and approximately 20 miles from the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. Residents will enjoy easy access to local attractions, with Pier Park only 7 miles away and Hathaway Bridge nearby, serving as the gateway to Panama City proper. The community is also conveniently situated near the Naval and Coast Guard bases. Each townhome features 3 or 4 bedrooms, including a bedroom with a full bath on the main level. The open concept living space includes a modern kitchen with an island, a dining area, and a family room that opens to a private back patio. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bath with a double vanity, a shower, and a separate water closet. Two additional bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a conveniently located laundry room complete the upper level.

13. 2026-04-23
    price $324,000 1115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1115 chars)

    NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS!!! Check out the open green space behind this townhome!!! Waypoint by Traton Homes, a vibrant new community of townhomes located on Front Beach Road in Panama City Beach, Florida. Waypoint offers 72 homes just under 3 miles from the beach, 1.5 miles from Dolphin Bay, and approximately 20 miles from the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. Residents will enjoy easy access to local attractions, with Pier Park only 7 miles away and Hathaway Bridge nearby, serving as the gateway to Panama City proper. The community is also conveniently situated near the Naval and Coast Guard bases. Each townhome features 3 or 4 bedrooms, including a bedroom with a full bath on the main level. The open concept living space includes a modern kitchen with an island, a dining area, and a family room that opens to a private back patio. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bath with a double vanity, a shower, and a separate water closet. Two additional bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a conveniently located laundry room complete the upper level.

14. 2026-02-05
    price $324,900 1115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1115 chars)

    NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS!!! Check out the open green space behind this townhome!!! Waypoint by Traton Homes, a vibrant new community of townhomes located on Front Beach Road in Panama City Beach, Florida. Waypoint offers 72 homes just under 3 miles from the beach, 1.5 miles from Dolphin Bay, and approximately 20 miles from the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. Residents will enjoy easy access to local attractions, with Pier Park only 7 miles away and Hathaway Bridge nearby, serving as the gateway to Panama City proper. The community is also conveniently situated near the Naval and Coast Guard bases. Each townhome features 3 or 4 bedrooms, including a bedroom with a full bath on the main level. The open concept living space includes a modern kitchen with an island, a dining area, and a family room that opens to a private back patio. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bath with a double vanity, a shower, and a separate water closet. Two additional bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a conveniently located laundry room complete the upper level.

15. 2026-01-31
    listed $329,900 Active 1115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1115 chars)

    NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS!!! Check out the open green space behind this townhome!!! Waypoint by Traton Homes, a vibrant new community of townhomes located on Front Beach Road in Panama City Beach, Florida. Waypoint offers 72 homes just under 3 miles from the beach, 1.5 miles from Dolphin Bay, and approximately 20 miles from the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. Residents will enjoy easy access to local attractions, with Pier Park only 7 miles away and Hathaway Bridge nearby, serving as the gateway to Panama City proper. The community is also conveniently situated near the Naval and Coast Guard bases. Each townhome features 3 or 4 bedrooms, including a bedroom with a full bath on the main level. The open concept living space includes a modern kitchen with an island, a dining area, and a family room that opens to a private back patio. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bath with a double vanity, a shower, and a separate water closet. Two additional bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a conveniently located laundry room complete the upper level.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,523
• After-tax cash flow: $253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. Upgrades to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value and appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $310,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $324,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $324,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $329,900 CPARMLS