9 Vail Ave · East Quogue, NY 11942

$629,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1957 0.51 ac lot Est $793k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Diamond in the Rough offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, basement & more

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $629k).
• Recommended offer: $620k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($620k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $619,565 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.53%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $792,576
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Vail Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$715,000	$621	100
20 Vail Ave	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+4%)	12mo	$825,000	$688	79
9 Mitchell Pl	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	13mo	$705,000	$705	47
6 Corbett Ct	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+7%)	13mo	$730,000	$593	45
3 Walker Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	24mo	$1,025,000	$820	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $304,791
• Equity at exit: $93,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $788,575
• Equity at exit: $54,384

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,685
• Net cashflow: $6,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,701

Max offer price $629,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,745	-5% $6,567	+0% $6,389	+5% $6,211	+10% $6,033
Rent	-10% $5,379	-5% $5,884	+0% $6,389	+5% $6,894	+10% $7,399
Rate	-1.0pp $6,706	-0.5pp $6,549	base $6,389	+0.5pp $6,226	+1.0pp $6,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	0.11mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	44d	1	0.56mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$10,000	$9.89	44d	1	0.64mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-31
   listed $629,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,233 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,397/yr (+$366/mo · 239.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $153,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,276
• − Management: −$12,276
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable income: $70,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,894
• After-tax cash flow: $59,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-31 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,835 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.