Lily Plan · Montgomery, AL 36116

$250,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Good condition $27/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lily floor plan! Falling in love starts when you walk up the driveway and notice the beautiful details this home has to offer like sconces that flank each side of the two-car garage, the covered front porch, and window shutters that match the front door. Walking into through the foyer your eye is first drawn to the wood burning fireplace that is set into tile and a wraparound mantel. Moving through this floor plan you will be struck by the modern and practical layout of the gorgeous eat in kitchen with wood cabinets.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 101 days

🏗️ New construction. The $250,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,875.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-789 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (46.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 6.2% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brewbaker Primary School (799 students, 78% FRL); Brewbaker Middle School (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #227 of 257 statewide, top 90%, 838 students, 91% FRL); Jefferson Davis High School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #258 of 305 statewide, top 85%, 1,522 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,422 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,875
• List price: $250,200
• Delta: -5.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6642 Triston Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-1%)	12mo	$230,000	$166	76
3929 Barons Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	8mo	$235,000	$155	68
5744 Neely Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-0%)	4mo	$170,000	$122	67
6485 Triston Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+7%)	8mo	$222,500	$149	66
6724 Patti Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-5%)	1mo	$155,000	$116	61
6736 Patti Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-3%)	5mo	$143,500	$106	60
3808 Brookshire Way	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (-14%)	5mo	$184,900	$153	57
3805 Brookshire Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+15%)	11mo	$217,000	$135	55
2236 S Sutherland Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+3%)	12mo	$160,000	$111	54
4065 Brookshire Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,213 (-14%)	10mo	$174,900	$144	52
6700 Ginger Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	5mo	$165,000	$130	47
5912 Portsmouth Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+9%)	8mo	$200,000	$131	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-89,273
• Equity at exit: $39,345

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-126,326
• Equity at exit: $22,815

Cash invested: $73,885 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,200 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36116

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,958/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $149,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-606	-5% $-697	+0% $-789	+5% $-880	+10% $-971
Rent	-10% $-895	-5% $-842	+0% $-789	+5% $-736	+10% $-682
Rate	-1.0pp $-656	-0.5pp $-722	base $-789	+0.5pp $-857	+1.0pp $-927

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,969
• Closing costs: $7,916
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2420 Haddington Rd Unit 1519890P Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1679	$4,483	$2.67	62d	1	0.38mi
5819 Brewbaker Blvd Unit 5819 Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	93d	1	0.85mi
2140 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.5	1428	$1,275	$0.89	93d	1	0.94mi
4008 Oak Shadow Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1741	$1,395	$0.80	70d	1	1.03mi
2066 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,250	$0.77	70d	1	1.10mi
2060 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1566	$925	$0.59	70d	1	1.11mi
5720 Worchester Dr Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1060	$895	$0.84	70d	1	1.13mi
3638 Castle Ridge Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$800	$0.73	62d	1	1.15mi
3201 Watchman Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,644	$1.56	62d	10	1.16mi
2014 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,150	$0.72	93d	1	1.21mi
3364 Fountain Ln Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1221	$1,099	$0.90	93d	1	1.23mi
5800 Eagle Cir Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,051	$1.05	93d	1	1.26mi
7104 Fair Oaks Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,881	$1.14	93d	1	1.27mi
5635 Red Barn Rd Unit 1043848P Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,390	$2.27	62d	1	1.30mi
4590 Troy Hwy Montgomery, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1330	$1,299	$0.98	62d	1	1.35mi
5931 Singleton St Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1302	$695	$0.53	93d	1	1.41mi
7406 Mill Ridge Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1785	$2,250	$1.26	93d	1	1.45mi
5917 Cherry Hill Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1161	$1,450	$1.25	62d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is active; list price available but omitted per instructions
• HOA & community: Association fee of 27.5 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Lily plan (new construction plan)Single-level description not provided

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1402

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,200 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $250,200 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,200 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,200 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $250,200 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,200 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,200 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,200 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $250,200 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $250,200 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $250,200 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,200 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,200 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,200 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,200 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,200 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,200 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,200 Active 78 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,200 Active 77 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,200 Active 76 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $250,200 Active 75 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,200 Active 74 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,200 Active 73 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,200 Active 72 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $250,200 Active 71 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,200 Active 70 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,200 Active 69 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,200 Active 68 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $250,200 Active 67 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,200 Active 66 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,200 Active 65 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,200 Active 64 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,200 Active 63 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,200 Active 62 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,200 Active 61 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,200 Active 59 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $250,200 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $250,200 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,200 Active 54 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,200 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,200 Active 50 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,200 Active 49 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,200 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $250,200 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,200 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $250,200 Active 43 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,200 Active 42 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,200 Active 41 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,200 Active 40 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,200 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,781
• − Property taxes: −$3,958
• − Insurance: −$1,319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$7,676
• Taxable loss: −$14,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping and curb appeal improvements, replacing window treatments, and replacing light fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Fresh light fixtures can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brewbaker Primary School Middle Brewbaker Middle School F AL #227/257 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Jefferson Davis High School F AL #258/305 Nat'l #16,586/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 224,008 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 45,250
• Household income: $55,160
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 12% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.31%
• Current HPI: 151.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is active; list price available but omitted per instructions
• HOA & community: Association fee of 27.5 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Lily plan (new construction plan)Single-level description not provided

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1402