303 Bull Shoals Way · Hoschton, GA 30548

$549,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2024 8,276 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $541k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning 5-bedroom, 4-bath home in sought-after Twin Lakes offers the perfect blend of luxury, space, and convenience. The open-concept floor plan features a beautiful kitchen with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and seamless flow into the spacious family room with a stone fireplace. A main-level bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile loft, spacious secondary bedrooms, and a luxurious owner's suite with a spa-like bath and dual walk-in closets. The private third-floor suite with a full bath is perfect for guests, a media room, or bonus living space. Complete with a level backyard and access to T

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface is asphalt; Directions: please use GPS; Located in Jackson County, GA
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $840; Association maintains grounds; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, fishing, lake, pickleball, and nearby shopping

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 garage spaces); Driveway with level approach; Garage faces front; Kitchen-level access to garage; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Three or more levels; HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built with HardiPlank-type exterior; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Resale condition; Lot located in Twin Lakes Phase 3C

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Breakfast room / eat-in kitchen; Open view to family room; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Four upper-level bedrooms; Oversized master with sitting room
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; Main-level half/partial bath not listed (see full baths total); Master bath with double vanity and separate his-and-hers features
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; His and hers closets; Walk-in closets; Gas log fireplace in the living room; No common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Common area laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-977 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (43.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (43.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.9% in Hoschton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#71 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Jackson Elementary School (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #364 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 1,184 students, 30% FRL); West Jackson Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 1,502 students, 28% FRL); Jackson County High School (math 20% / reading 17%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,833 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 44% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,842 (43.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,798
• List price: $549,900
• Delta: 1.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Candlewood Ln	0.16mi	5/4.0	3,326 (+11%)	2mo	$549,900	$165	73
502 Great Salt Ln	0.47mi	5/3.5	2,721 (-9%)	0mo	$434,685	$160	60
172 Candlewood Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,568 (-14%)	2mo	$529,900	$206	60
533 Great Salt Ln	0.51mi	5/3.5	2,721 (-9%)	0mo	$429,685	$158	59
234 Storm Ln	0.50mi	5/3.5	2,721 (-9%)	1mo	$425,000	$156	59
254 Storm Ln	0.53mi	5/3.5	2,721 (-9%)	2mo	$437,690	$161	56
296 Canyon Ferry Way	0.60mi	5/3.5	2,721 (-9%)	1mo	$410,000	$151	54
847 Crystal Lake Pkwy	0.67mi	5/3.0	2,793 (-7%)	2mo	$422,990	$151	52
332 Clear Lake Pkwy	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,707 (-10%)	1mo	$787,258	$291	51
795 Crystal Lake Pkwy	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,146 (+5%)	1mo	$412,990	$131	51
857 Crystal Lake Pkwy	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,141 (+5%)	1mo	$431,990	$138	49
737 Crystal Lake Pkwy	0.57mi	5/3.5	3,419 (+14%)	2mo	$549,990	$161	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-160,643
• Equity at exit: $81,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-256,032
• Equity at exit: $47,545

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30548

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,092/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,355

Max offer price $377,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-666	-5% $-821	+0% $-977	+5% $-1,133	+10% $-1,288
Rent	-10% $-1,223	-5% $-1,100	+0% $-977	+5% $-854	+10% $-731
Rate	-1.0pp $-700	-0.5pp $-837	base $-977	+0.5pp $-1,119	+1.0pp $-1,264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
247 E Lake Dr Hoschton, GA	4.0	2.5	4261	$3,600	$0.84	45d	1	0.42mi
274 Canyon Ferry Way Hoschton, GA	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,300	$1.05	7d	1	0.56mi
300 Peachtree Rd Hoschton, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5	2000	$2,421	$1.21	0d	4	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $549,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $549,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $549,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $549,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $549,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $549,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-03-15
    price $575,000 803-char remark
12. 2026-03-15
    price $575,000 815-char remark
13. 2026-02-01
    listed $585,000 New 803-char remark
14. 2026-02-01
    listed $585,000 Active 815-char remark
15. 2026-01-30
    historical
16. 2026-01-30
    historical
17. 2025-10-24
    price $597,000
18. 2025-10-24
    price $597,000
19. 2025-10-03
    listed $625,000 Active
20. 2025-09-30
    listed $625,000 New
21. 2025-04-02
    soldstatus $493,599 Sold
22. 2025-04-02
    soldstatus $493,599 Closed
23. 2025-03-24
    status Under Contract
24. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
25. 2025-03-24
    listed $493,599 New
26. 2025-03-24
    listed $493,599 Active
27. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus $525,126

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,059 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,967/yr (+$164/mo · 63.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,092
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,994
• − Management: −$2,994
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$22,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,291
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hoschton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #6303

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hoschton, GA
• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 24,602
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,232
• Household income: $111,257
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 520.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.49%
• Current HPI: 236.1853
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.44%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $549,900 FMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $549,900 GAMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $549,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $575,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $575,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $549,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $585,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $585,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $597,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $597,000 FMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $625,000 FMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $625,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-02 Sold (MLS) $493,599 GAMLS
• 2025-04-02 Sold (MLS) $493,599 FMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — FMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $493,599 GAMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $493,599 FMLS
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $525,126 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,092 · +207.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.