Stafford Plan · Ludowici, GA 31316

$266,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 662 Days on market

Excellent condition $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Stafford floor plan, situated in the serene new Doctor's Creek community, boasts striking curb appeal that never fails to impress. Perfect for families of any size, this versatile layout offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open-concept living space provides unobstructed views from the upgraded granite kitchen to the breakfast area. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet, along with a private bath featuring a dual vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. Artistic renderings are provided for reference purposes only, and the actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• Dual vanity bath
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 661 days

Tags

• UPGRADED GRANITE KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $266,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,989.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 662 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,777 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 662 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.62%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,989
• List price: $266,900
• Delta: -6.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Pintail Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	11mo	$300,095	$192	74
58 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	10mo	$292,025	$187	62
52 Freshwater Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	3mo	$285,178	$193	62
117 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	8mo	$274,995	$176	62
92 Freshwater Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,473 (-6%)	4mo	$284,800	$193	61
34 Pintail Ct NE	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	11mo	$300,095	$192	61
55 Pintail Ct NE	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	8mo	$276,625	$171	58
74 Freshwater Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-10%)	0mo	$278,000	$196	58
76 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	11mo	$298,170	$184	55
439 Lanier Rd NE	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	11mo	$279,525	$173	53
135 Doctors Creek Rd NE	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	9mo	$263,725	$191	37
287 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	8mo	$264,625	$192	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-15,622
• Equity at exit: $99,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $13,203
• Equity at exit: $134,266

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,701

Max offer price $232,048

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,247
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $266,900 Active 662 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,900 Active 661 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,900 Active 660 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,900 Active 659 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,900 Active 658 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $266,900 Active 656 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,900 Active 655 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $266,900 Active 653 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,900 Active 652 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $266,900 Active 651 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $266,900 Active 650 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $266,900 Active 647 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,900 Active 646 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,900 Active 645 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,900 Active 644 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,900 Active 643 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $266,900 Active 642 DOM
18. 2025-03-07
    price $266,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    The Stafford floor plan, situated in the serene new Doctor's Creek community, boasts striking curb appeal that never fails to impress. Perfect for families of any size, this versatile layout offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open-concept living space provides unobstructed views from the upgraded granite kitchen to the breakfast area. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet, along with a private bath featuring a dual vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. Artistic renderings are provided for reference purposes only, and the actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may vary.

19. 2024-08-26
    listed $265,900 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    The Stafford floor plan, situated in the serene new Doctor's Creek community, boasts striking curb appeal that never fails to impress. Perfect for families of any size, this versatile layout offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. The open-concept living space provides unobstructed views from the upgraded granite kitchen to the breakfast area. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet, along with a private bath featuring a dual vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. Artistic renderings are provided for reference purposes only, and the actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$2,927
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$9,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Stafford floor plan in Ludowici, GA, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz — Quartz countertops are durable and more modern
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase tenant appeal and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz — Quartz countertops are durable and more modern ↑
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase tenant appeal and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $266,900 Zillow
• 2024-08-26 Listed $265,900 Zillow