15601 N 19th Ave #203 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 296 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $1,050 per month; Association fee includes water; Community pool and spa

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; East/West exposure; Corner lot; Desert front yard; Dirt backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Electric range/oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry / eat-in area
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps (single-level); Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Solar window screens; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thunderbird High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #109 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,540 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.59%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,800
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2145 W Monte Cristo Ave	0.44mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	1mo	$339,000	$259	56
2146 W Monte Cristo Ave	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	1mo	$332,500	$254	56
1967 W Busoni Pl	0.26mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	15mo	$355,000	$271	53
2155 W Scully Dr	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	12mo	$366,000	$279	43
16036 N 11th Ave #1108	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (+13%)	4mo	$383,000	$283	40
2180 W Scully Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	15mo	$354,950	$271	38
16036 N 11th Ave #1100	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,373 (+14%)	3mo	$403,000	$294	37
16036 N 11th Ave #1083	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+11%)	15mo	$407,500	$306	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $31,173
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $71,972
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $815	+0% $785	+5% $756	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $648	-5% $717	+0% $785	+5% $854	+10% $923
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $807	base $785	+0.5pp $763	+1.0pp $741

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1950 W Tierra Buena Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$2,092	$1.66	2d	3	0.21mi
14602 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	24d	8	0.57mi
14602 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,565	$1.49	18d	1	0.57mi
2506 W Caribbean Ln #10 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,375	$1.30	15d	1	0.75mi
14230 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,665	$1.76	2d	33	0.81mi
15449 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,599	$2.02	2d	11	0.81mi
14814 N 24th Dr #7 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,075	$1.72	2d	1	0.88mi
16033 N 25th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,595	$1.28	12d	1	0.89mi
16021 N 25th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1246	$2,000	$1.61	22d	1	0.90mi
15620 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$1,300	$1.78	2d	27	0.93mi
2554 W Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	882	$1,900	$2.15	2d	1	0.95mi
15847 N 26th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1225	$2,495	$2.04	2d	1	0.98mi
1944 W Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,835	$1.73	2d	58	0.98mi
2140 W Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$1,299	$1.83	2d	1	1.04mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	44d	1	1.06mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	0d	34	1.11mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.12mi
15035 N 28th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,646	$1.21	11d	1	1.15mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	3d	2	1.19mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	40	1.20mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	0d	23	1.23mi
14234 N 26th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1434	$2,300	$1.60	11d	1	1.28mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	44d	1	1.30mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.30mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	3d	1	1.30mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	44d	1	1.33mi
2932 W Caribbean Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,749	$1.69	17d	1	1.34mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	4d	1	1.35mi
14020 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,650	$2.04	2d	21	1.47mi
16623 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,050	$1.43	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 287 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2025-08-26
    listed $85,000 Active
15. 2025-04-28
    historical
16. 2025-03-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
17. 2025-03-04
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,059
• After-tax cash flow: $7,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-26 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $65,000 ARMLS