125 S De Soto Ln · Tustin, CA 92780

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 177 Days on market

Built 1984 $154/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Tustin Village! This beautifully maintained manufactured home offers the perfect combination of space, comfort, and convenience. As you step inside, you are greeted by a bright and welcoming open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for relaxing or entertaining guests. Featuring three generous bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this floor plan provides ample room for a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, you will find a covered carport with the capacity to accommodate up to three vehicles, adding a layer of ease to daily coming and going. Residents of the Tustin Village community enjoy fantastic shared amenities, including a sparkling pool, a relaxing spa, and a clubhouse perfect for social gatherings. Ideally situated within the boundaries of the award-winning Tustin Unified School District, this home places you moments away from local shopping, dining, and freeways. Do not miss this opportunity to secure a home in a sought-after community!

Key facts

• Relaxing spa
• Clubhouse
• Covered carport

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED CARPORT
• RELAXING SPA
• CLUBHOUSE
• TUSTIN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 1.9% in Tustin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#215 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Tustin Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #91 of 517 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.31%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,894
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 S Colombo Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+4%)	5mo	$219,000	$162	88
28 Rancho Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	2mo	$280,000	$208	81
61 Saddleback Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	4mo	$290,000	$216	79
118 Estrella	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+4%)	7mo	$148,000	$110	68
108 E Balboa Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	17mo	$212,000	$177	68
128 E Balboa Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	12mo	$210,000	$184	67
99 La Ronda	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+8%)	9mo	$168,000	$120	65
121 S Portola Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	12mo	$129,900	$116	64
33 Estrella	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+9%)	8mo	$282,500	$200	59
37 Estrella	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	13mo	$325,000	$226	57
30 Via Media	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+3%)	11mo	$80,000	$60	55
78 Consuelo	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+13%)	16mo	$347,000	$236	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $46,566
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $153,138
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92780

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $1,181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16586 Montego Way Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1188	$3,900	$3.28	43d	1	0.10mi
15502 Williams St Apt N Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1620	$3,650	$2.25	20d	1	0.15mi
15512 Williams St Unit A89 Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1047	$2,950	$2.82	43d	1	0.15mi
15513 Williams St Unit Q013 Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$2,525	$2.77	15d	1	0.18mi
16571 Alliance Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	865	$2,100	$2.43	7d	1	0.21mi
15701 Tustin Village Way Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1062	$2,850	$2.68	15d	1	0.28mi
15701 Tustin Village Way Unit A-12 Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1062	$2,850	$2.68	24d	1	0.28mi
15660 Tustin Village Way Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$2,695	$3.08	43d	1	0.30mi
15652 Williams St Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	862	$2,750	$3.19	43d	9	0.32mi
2112 E 1st St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,448	$2.61	15d	1	0.34mi
16282 E Main St Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	937	$2,886	$3.08	4d	4	0.35mi
637 S Lyon St Santa Ana, CA	4.0	3.5	1853	$5,500	$2.97	12d	1	0.38mi
15742 Williams St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,798	$2.54	2d	1	0.39mi
15482 Pasadena Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$2,936	$3.73	6d	6	0.39mi
677 S Lyon St Santa Ana, CA	4.0	3.5	1853	$4,650	$2.51	20d	1	0.41mi
17045 Medallion Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$3,100	$2.58	43d	1	0.43mi
340 Pacific St Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$3,095	$3.44	43d	1	0.43mi
693 S Lyon St Santa Ana, CA	4.0	3.5	1853	$4,600	$2.48	43d	1	0.43mi
15731 Pasadena Ave Unit 16 Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1013	$2,600	$2.57	43d	1	0.46mi
1901 E 1st St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1267	$4,467	$3.53	2d	16	0.47mi
100 S Zoo Ln Santa Ana, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$5,526	$5.77	2d	27	0.51mi
500 W 3rd St Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$4,500	$2.57	43d	1	0.52mi
1001 S Lyon St Unit 8-N Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,850	$2.79	43d	1	0.52mi
1001 S Lyon St Unit 20-N Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,650	$2.60	43d	1	0.52mi
1001 S Lyon St Unit 24-S Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,800	$2.75	18d	1	0.52mi
1001 S Lyon St Unit 12-N Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,800	$2.75	43d	1	0.52mi
15695 S B St Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,795	$2.79	43d	1	0.64mi
17200 McFadden Ave Unit 06A Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1230	$3,195	$2.60	24d	1	0.66mi
17272 Walnut Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,785	$3.71	3d	2	0.67mi
15722 S B St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,050	$2.54	24d	1	0.68mi
15991 Altadena Dr Unit Domus Villas 16001 C Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$2,800	$2.83	21d	1	0.70mi
17062 Altadena Dr., 15991 & 16001 Pasadena AVE Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$2,900	$2.93	15d	1	0.70mi
15991 Bliss Ln Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$2,900	$2.93	21d	1	0.70mi
559 N Tustin Ave Apt E Santa Ana, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$2,550	$2.80	43d	1	0.77mi
587 N Tustin Ave Unit G Santa Ana, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$2,450	$2.69	43d	1	0.78mi
573 N Tustin Ave Apt H Santa Ana, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	43d	1	0.80mi
14901 Newport Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$3,206	$4.73	2d	8	0.80mi
14300 Newport Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	943	$3,130	$3.32	1d	11	0.81mi
750 N Parkcenter Dr Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$3,614	$4.12	6d	9	0.84mi
14802 Newport Ave Unit 5A Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1258	$3,000	$2.38	2d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 159 DOM
15. 2025-12-23
    listed $199,999 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Welcome home to Tustin Village! This beautifully maintained manufactured home offers the perfect combination of space, comfort, and convenience. As you step inside, you are greeted by a bright and welcoming open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for relaxing or entertaining guests. Featuring three generous bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this floor plan provides ample room for a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, you will find a covered carport with the capacity to accommodate up to three vehicles, adding a layer of ease to daily coming and going. Residents of the Tustin Village community enjoy fantastic shared amenities, including a sparkling pool, a relaxing spa, and a clubhouse perfect for social gatherings. Ideally situated within the boundaries of the award-winning Tustin Unified School District, this home places you moments away from local shopping, dining, and freeways. Do not miss this opportunity to secure a home in a sought-after community!

16. 2024-05-16
    historical
17. 2023-11-17
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,115
• − Management: −$3,115
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $11,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,804
• After-tax cash flow: $11,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tustin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640150
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $81,864
• Composite: 50.32/100
• National rank: #1880
• State rank: #91 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tustin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #6806

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tustin, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 84,447
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,374
• Household income: $101,017
• Rent vs Own: 55.9% rent · 44.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3031.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 27% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -924.13%
• Current HPI: 482.9143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $199,999 CRMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $180,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $66 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.