7944 Allenwood Ln · Olive Branch, MS 38654

$272,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2016 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADAMS HOMES CRAFTSMAN 1668 PLAN IS 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS. FEATURES A MASTER SUITE WITH TREY CEILINGS, AND A WALK IN CLOSET. DOUBLE RAISED VANITY. LARGE FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS NICE SIZED PANTRY, AND IS OPEN TO A DINING ROOM. HAS COVERED FRONT PORCH AND BACK PORCH WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE. INCLUDES GE APPLIANCES(REFRIGERATOR NOT INCLUDED). ONE YEAR BUILDER WARRANTY AND A 2-10 BONDED BUILDER WARRANTY.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Cozy gas fireplace
• Large family room

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE RAISED VANITY
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED PANTRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with direct access; Concrete driveway
• Security: 24-hour security; Security system; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; New construction
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Architectural composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by owner (year built source: Owner)
• Exterior features: Private, landscaped yard; Back yard fenced with privacy wood fencing; Patio slab; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Additional bedrooms (2)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Laminate; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric and gas utilities for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Soaking tub; Breakfast bar; Gas log fireplace in the great room; Blinds and insulated windows; Deadbolt and insulated metal doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Inside laundry with electric dryer hookup; Common area laundry; Water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $272,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,553.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-74/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Olive Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#29 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olive Branch Elem (503 students, 99% FRL); Olive Branch Middle (math 48% / reading 32%, grade F, #68 of 179 statewide, top 38%, 726 students, 100% FRL); Olive Branch High School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade D+, #17 of 197 statewide, top 9%, 1,117 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,417 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,553
• List price: $272,000
• Delta: -0.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7944 Allenwood Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+0%)	1mo	$272,000	$163	99
7831 Ferndale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+3%)	2mo	$249,500	$145	86
7843 Ferndale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+3%)	5mo	$279,000	$162	84
7905 Gardendale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+3%)	6mo	$309,200	$180	83
7880 Allenwood Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-13%)	6mo	$279,900	$193	70
7835 Gardendale Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+9%)	2mo	$324,600	$178	68
7736 Ferndale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-14%)	1mo	$286,250	$201	68
7843 Gardendale Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+9%)	4mo	$314,600	$173	67
7839 Gardendale Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+9%)	4mo	$314,800	$173	67
7384 Woodland Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+2%)	2mo	$229,999	$136	62
7859 Gardendale Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-14%)	8mo	$290,250	$204	61
7333 Deerbrook Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,457 (-12%)	6mo	$256,900	$176	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,896
• Equity at exit: $40,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,340
• Equity at exit: $23,565

Cash invested: $76,315 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38654

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,791/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $271,470

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $71	+0% $-6	+5% $-83	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-90	+0% $-6	+5% $78	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $63	base $-6	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,138
• Closing costs: $8,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7959 Ridgedale Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,910	$1.26	12d	1	0.03mi
7916 Ridgedale Dr Olive Branch, MS	4.0	2.0	1724	$1,945	$1.13	5d	1	0.09mi
8564 Courtly Cir N Olive Branch, MS	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,140	$0.97	45d	1	0.96mi
6769 Terry Chase Olive Branch, MS	4.0	2.0	2002	$2,315	$1.16	6d	1	1.29mi
9025 Creekside Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,995	$1.11	6d	1	1.37mi
9112 Lakeshore Dr Olive Branch, MS	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,350	$1.18	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 658-char remark
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $272,000 Active 658-char remark
3. 2016-07-29
   soldstatus 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   ADAMS HOMES CRAFTSMAN 1668 PLAN IS 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS. FEATURES A MASTER SUITE WITH TREY CEILINGS, AND A WALK IN CLOSET. DOUBLE RAISED VANITY. LARGE FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS NICE SIZED PANTRY, AND IS OPEN TO A DINING ROOM. HAS COVERED FRONT PORCH AND BACK PORCH WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE. INCLUDES GE APPLIANCES(REFRIGERATOR NOT INCLUDED). ONE YEAR BUILDER WARRANTY AND A 2-10 BONDED BUILDER WARRANTY.

4. 2016-04-05
   listed $152,000 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   ADAMS HOMES CRAFTSMAN 1668 PLAN IS 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS. FEATURES A MASTER SUITE WITH TREY CEILINGS, AND A WALK IN CLOSET. DOUBLE RAISED VANITY. LARGE FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS NICE SIZED PANTRY, AND IS OPEN TO A DINING ROOM. HAS COVERED FRONT PORCH AND BACK PORCH WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE. INCLUDES GE APPLIANCES(REFRIGERATOR NOT INCLUDED). ONE YEAR BUILDER WARRANTY AND A 2-10 BONDED BUILDER WARRANTY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,791 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,149 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,791
• − Insurance: −$1,363
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$7,929
• Taxable loss: −$4,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $1,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Olive Branch

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #6509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olive Branch, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 57,898
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 57,898
• Household income: $103,092
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.27%
• Current HPI: 187.2114
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+78.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Listed $272,000 MLSU
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-04-05 Listed $152,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,791 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.