164 Herald St · Rochester, NY 14621

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1910 3,289 sqft lot Est $125k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of house for not a lot of money! Would you like to be a real estate investor? Start with purchasing 4 Mitchell Street, 40 Moulson, 164 Hearld, 397 Ravine and 911 Lake Ave for 549,900

Key facts

• 3,289 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,491/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2756% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.23%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,442
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Herald St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+4%)	1mo	$60,000	$47	86
1271 North St	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,276 (+3%)	2mo	$128,900	$101	78
235 Ernst St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-6%)	2mo	$170,000	$146	75
1295 North Street St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,347 (+8%)	2mo	$70,000	$52	71
116 Barberry	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-2%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	68
623 Avenue D	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+1%)	2mo	$70,000	$56	68
95 Cleon St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-12%)	1mo	$83,000	$76	66
56 Northlane Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	2mo	$90,142	$73	63
82 Kosciusko St	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,137 (-8%)	3mo	$174,000	$153	59
85 Eiffel Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+6%)	3mo	$60,000	$45	57
57 Milan St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,097 (-12%)	3mo	$190,000	$173	52
34 Zygment St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,137 (-8%)	2mo	$182,000	$160	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $41,524
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $129,988
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14621

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $597

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $746	-5% $726	+0% $706	+5% $686	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $588	-5% $647	+0% $706	+5% $765	+10% $824
Rate	-1.0pp $741	-0.5pp $724	base $706	+0.5pp $688	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
176 Roycroft Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1169	$950	$0.81	11d	1	0.12mi
127 Carter St #125 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1320	$1,400	$1.06	44d	1	0.17mi
25 Trust St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,600	$1.60	4d	1	0.33mi
100 Fairbanks St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1456	$1,100	$0.76	45d	1	0.36mi
171 Mohawk St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,775	$1.68	44d	1	0.40mi
239 Weyl St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1208	$1,600	$1.32	20d	1	0.43mi
— Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	896	$1,100	$1.23	15d	1	0.70mi
117 Northaven Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,975	$1.35	11d	1	0.72mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	22d	1	0.74mi
11 Maria St Unit 1 DN Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	44d	1	0.74mi
21 Portland Ct Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,210	$1.42	44d	1	0.83mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	22d	1	0.89mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	0.90mi
32 Portland Pkwy Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	652	$1,485	$2.28	3d	8	0.97mi
56 Brambury Dr Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,425	$1.98	11d	1	1.05mi
95 Onondaga Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,630	$1.98	3d	1	1.06mi
326 Northland Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,500	$1.28	3d	1	1.06mi
86-88 Baycliff Dr Unit 86 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,030	$1.14	22d	1	1.07mi
16 Cummings St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	782	$1,250	$1.60	44d	1	1.13mi
16 Cummings St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	782	$1,250	$1.60	20d	1	1.13mi
14-42 Seneca Manor Dr Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,120	$1.40	44d	1	1.16mi
222 Ellison St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	971	$1,000	$1.03	15d	1	1.17mi
1890 Clifford Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	1.19mi
493 Hollenbeck St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	936	$1,275	$1.36	15d	1	1.26mi
1750 Hudson Ave Irondequoit, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	654	$1,900	$2.90	3d	4	1.35mi
1196 E Ridge Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,265	$1.58	24d	1	1.35mi
152 Gibbs St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,875	$1.97	15d	3	1.43mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	4d	1	1.44mi
405 Alexander St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,425	$1.78	4d	1	1.44mi
76 Avenue A Unit Up Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	796	$1,700	$2.14	44d	1	1.46mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 136 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	11d	1	1.46mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 130 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	11d	1	1.46mi
395 Alexander St Unit UN12 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1226	$2,200	$1.79	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-10-23
   soldstatus $525,000
2. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
3. 2022-04-29
   status Pending Sale
4. 2022-04-26
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
5. 2022-03-11
   historical
6. 2022-03-10
   listed $70,000 Active
7. 2022-03-04
   price $84,900
8. 2022-02-16
   listed $549,900 Active
9. 2019-03-29
   historical
10. 2019-02-18
    listed $170,000 Active
11. 2018-12-31
    historical
12. 2018-11-07
    price $44,900
13. 2018-10-24
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,044 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $6,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,381
• Household income: $35,383
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2756.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 40% White 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 32% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.66%
• Current HPI: 254.1805
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.88%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+952.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-04-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-04-26 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2022-03-11 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2022-03-10 Listed $70,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-03-04 Price Changed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-02-16 Listed $549,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-03-29 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2019-02-18 Listed $170,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-12-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2018-11-07 Price Changed $44,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-24 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.