Plan 2246 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$238,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Open floor plan
• Loft

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• DEN
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• LOFT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

🏗️ New construction. The $238,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,503.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,717 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,503
• List price: $238,995
• Delta: -15.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7215 Saddle Crest Way	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,382 (+6%)	1mo	$281,503	$118	81
7211 Saddle Crest Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	2,004 (-11%)	1mo	$263,028	$131	78
1811 Beasley West End Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,991 (-11%)	7mo	$378,500	$190	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $24,058
• Equity at exit: $145,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $103,553
• Equity at exit: $239,616

Cash invested: $78,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,223/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $219,160

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-334	+0% $-431	+5% $-528	+10% $-625
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-507	+0% $-431	+5% $-355	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-359	base $-431	+0.5pp $-504	+1.0pp $-578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,376
• Closing costs: $8,445
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,995 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,995 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,995 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,995 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $238,995 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,995 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,995 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,995 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,995 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $243,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

15. 2026-03-28
    price $241,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

16. 2026-03-24
    price $239,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

17. 2026-02-06
    price $238,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

18. 2025-12-12
    price $248,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

19. 2025-11-22
    status Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

20. 2025-11-22
    price $258,995 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

21. 2025-11-05
    historical 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

22. 2025-11-04
    listed $268,995 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    * Front porch * Den * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Extra storage space * Loft * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen breakfast bar * Low-E windows * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,769
• − Property taxes: −$4,223
• − Insurance: −$1,408
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$8,189
• Taxable loss: −$10,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,463
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $241,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $238,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $258,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Listed $268,995 Zillow