Elston Plan · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$304,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of two-story living in the Elston floorplan, located in Sandal Key in Weeki Wachee, Florida. This four bedroom, two and a half bathroom home blends functionality with modern aesthetics perfectly. The main floor seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an open and inviting space to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a quartz countertop kitchen island overlooking the great room. Each home is complete with a stainless-steel range, microwave, and built-in dishwasher. A convenient half bathroom is also tucked away on the first floor. Upstairs, discover four well-appointed bedrooms, including the primary bedroom with an en

Key facts

• Two story living
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 99 days

Tags

• TWO STORY LIVING
• OPEN AND INVITING SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL RANGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 10370 Tucker Rd, Weeki Wachee FL 34613; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $304,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named Elston; Single-family home (plan)
• Construction: Built as part of the Elston plan (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2260

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living space

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,692/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $269,231 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10471 Tucker Rd	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	3mo	$319,990	$142	93
10540 Tucker Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	1mo	$321,000	$142	93
10447 Tucker Rd	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	6mo	$315,990	$140	92
10507 Tucker Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	3mo	$310,000	$137	91
10460 Tucker Rd	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	6mo	$312,990	$138	91
10411 Tucker Rd	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (-8%)	3mo	$310,000	$149	75
10485 Tucker Rd	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	3mo	$315,990	$129	72
10519 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	1mo	$315,990	$129	72
10466 Tucker Rd	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	4mo	$315,990	$129	72
10455 Tucker Rd	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	5mo	$320,000	$131	71
10461 Tucker Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,961 (-13%)	3mo	$295,990	$151	66
10484 Tucker Rd	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,961 (-13%)	7mo	$312,990	$160	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,029
• Equity at exit: $47,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-52,644
• Equity at exit: $27,356

Cash invested: $88,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,659
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,746/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $307,769

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $50	+0% $-60	+5% $-169	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-166	+0% $-60	+5% $47	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $21	base $-60	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,100
• Closing costs: $9,492
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10507 Tucker Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	4.0	2.5	2650	$2,650	$1.00	26d	1	0.15mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	3d	1	1.28mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	6d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,990 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,990 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,990 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,990 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,990 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,990 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,723
• − Property taxes: −$4,746
• − Insurance: −$1,582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − Depreciation: −$9,204
• Taxable loss: −$6,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B