216 Arch Davis Rd · Pittsburg, TX 75686

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1973 $117/sqft · 11% above area Est $180k · 11% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1973 and full of potential, this 1,706 sq. ft. home sits on a generous . 44-acre lot just minutes from town. Offering three bedrooms and two baths, the layout provides comfortable living space with great opportunity to update and make it your own. A bright sunroom adds additional living space. .. perfect for morning coffee, hobbies or relaxing your-round. The home features built-in shelves and cabinets throughout, providing abundant storage and character. Outside, you'll find two outbuildings ideal for a workshop, storage or hobby space. The spacious lot offers room for gardening, outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying the peaceful setting. This property is ready for some tender loving care and updates, making it w wonderful opportunity for buyers looking to add personal touches and build equity. This home is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Outdoor entertaining
• Outbuildings

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• BUILT-IN SHELVES
• OUTBUILDINGS
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.1% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#144 in TX, #4,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, employment D+.
• Pittsburg ISD (town): math 54% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #216 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pittsburg El (math 34% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 545 students, 80% FRL); Pittsburg J H (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 349 students, 82% FRL); Pittsburg H S (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 726 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Camp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camp County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,947
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 10.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Lafayette	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+8%)	16mo	$100,000	$54	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,916
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,408
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75686

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $156	+0% $99	+5% $43	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $28	+0% $99	+5% $171	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $150	base $99	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-03-02
    listed $230,000 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    Built in 1973 and full of potential, this 1,706 sq. ft. home sits on a generous . 44-acre lot just minutes from town. Offering three bedrooms and two baths, the layout provides comfortable living space with great opportunity to update and make it your own. A bright sunroom adds additional living space. .. perfect for morning coffee, hobbies or relaxing your-round. The home features built-in shelves and cabinets throughout, providing abundant storage and character. Outside, you'll find two outbuildings ideal for a workshop, storage or hobby space. The spacious lot offers room for gardening, outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying the peaceful setting. This property is ready for some tender loving care and updates, making it w wonderful opportunity for buyers looking to add personal touches and build equity. This home is ready for its next chapter.

19. 2025-08-01
    price $269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,137/yr (+$95/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$512
• After-tax cash flow: $1,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835010
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $38,136
• Composite: 40.87/100
• National rank: #3627
• State rank: #216 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #4098

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,427

Population outlook (Camp County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,403 people
• By 2030: 13,741 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 14,436 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 15,135 · +12.9%
• By 2075: 16,836 · +25.6%
• By 2100: 17,582 · +31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Scottish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camp

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.6) · D 22.9% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+42.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.12%
• Current HPI: 181.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $230,000 GTAR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $269,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,505 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.