924 Elizabeth Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$127,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1975 4,791 sqft lot $285/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome 55+ community with nice clean home. This 2 bed 2 bath 1440 sq ft home has new laminate flooring and exterior paint. This home has tons of storage and large master suite. The community features a heated pool and spa with a Tiki Hut, private dock and boat ramp on Lake Gibson. A large community building with an exercise room, game room with pool tables, lounge, craft room, tool room, and more. This is a must see community.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Florida room
• Brand-new vanity

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• NICELY UPDATED KITCHEN
• GUEST BATHROOM
• BRAND-NEW VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,226 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,152
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,582
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,037/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $198	+0% $162	+5% $125	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $94	+0% $162	+5% $229	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $194	base $162	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	4d	15	0.38mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	15d	1	0.46mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	24d	1	0.50mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	22d	8	0.59mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	20d	1	0.63mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	4d	1	0.78mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	24d	1	0.80mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	4d	24	0.81mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	24d	1	0.81mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	15d	2	0.82mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	4d	6	0.90mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	24d	1	1.03mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	1.13mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	15d	1	1.15mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.15mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	1.15mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	4d	1	1.15mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	1.19mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	4d	21	1.21mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	24d	1	1.22mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	1.26mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	24d	1	1.27mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.28mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	15d	1	1.31mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	15d	1	1.32mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	24d	1	1.35mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	4d	17	1.41mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	4d	1	1.42mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	4d	1	1.48mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-02-08
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-02
   listed $127,900 Active
5. 2022-12-20
   soldstatus $120,000
6. 2022-07-15
   soldstatus $75,000
7. 2018-01-26
   soldstatus $47,000
8. 2018-01-25
   soldstatus $47,000 Sold 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Awesome 55+ community with nice clean home. This 2 bed 2 bath 1440 sq ft home has new laminate flooring and exterior paint. This home has tons of storage and large master suite. The community features a heated pool and spa with a Tiki Hut, private dock and boat ramp on Lake Gibson. A large community building with an exercise room, game room with pool tables, lounge, craft room, tool room, and more. This is a must see community.

9. 2017-12-26
   historical 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Awesome 55+ community with nice clean home. This 2 bed 2 bath 1440 sq ft home has new laminate flooring and exterior paint. This home has tons of storage and large master suite. The community features a heated pool and spa with a Tiki Hut, private dock and boat ramp on Lake Gibson. A large community building with an exercise room, game room with pool tables, lounge, craft room, tool room, and more. This is a must see community.

10. 2017-12-20
    listed $49,900 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Awesome 55+ community with nice clean home. This 2 bed 2 bath 1440 sq ft home has new laminate flooring and exterior paint. This home has tons of storage and large master suite. The community features a heated pool and spa with a Tiki Hut, private dock and boat ramp on Lake Gibson. A large community building with an exercise room, game room with pool tables, lounge, craft room, tool room, and more. This is a must see community.

11. 2017-12-18
    historical
12. 2017-10-22
    price $55,000
13. 2017-09-19
    price $59,900
14. 2017-07-03
    listed $64,500 Active
15. 2003-08-01
    soldstatus $49,000
16. 2002-12-31
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,037
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+167.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $127,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-25 Sold (MLS) $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-20 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-22 Price Changed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-19 Price Changed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-03 Listed $64,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,037 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.