2526 Walnut Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$159,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 4,368 sqft lot Est $140k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2526 Walnut! This charming all-brick home sits proudly on a spacious corner lot. Inside, you’ll find beautiful original hardwood floors, a large living and dining area with soaring ceilings, and plenty of natural light. Upstairs offers four generously sized bedrooms with updated vinyl flooring, a recently renovated bathroom, and a full attic with endless potential to be finished. Off-street parking is also available. If you’ve been searching for a classic all-brick single-family home on a sizable corner lot, 2526 Walnut is the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Decorative columns
• Built-in shelving

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DECORATIVE COLUMNS
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• WHITE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Brick construction; Existing (resale) property; City street frontage; Poured foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Poured foundation; Built (existing) — year not specified
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 52 x 84)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Convertible bedroom (count of bedrooms not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Bathroom rough-in; Separate/formal dining room; Convertible bedroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-507/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,489/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,937 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2526 Walnut Ave	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,664 (0%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	97
1968 Welch Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-0%)	3mo	$139,900	$84	70
552 29th St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (-6%)	4mo	$140,000	$89	70
527 23rd St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,488 (-11%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	69
2426 Falls St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,670 (+0%)	7mo	$75,000	$45	68
554 31st St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,524 (-8%)	2mo	$156,000	$102	65
3510 Chapin Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,547 (-7%)	3mo	$184,900	$120	62
451 20th St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	52
1424 Osborne Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (+4%)	4mo	$70,000	$41	49
2415 Linwood Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (-5%)	6mo	$145,000	$92	49
440 20th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (-14%)	6mo	$52,000	$37	45
3807 Pine Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,824 (+10%)	5mo	$128,500	$70	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $92,357
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $293,776
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $152,433

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.34mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.41mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.60mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.61mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	0.62mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.70mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.71mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.13mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $159,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,765 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,765 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,765
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+160.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Sold (MLS) $112,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $109,999 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-16 Sold (MLS) $54,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-19 Listed $61,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,765 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.