336 S Paseo Cerro Unit A · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1964 $415/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique condo in the desired Villas. This is a quiet end unit located off the street. It boasts a large enclosed patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee and evening sunsets. It is one of the few units with a separate laundry/storage room off kitchen. Full size washer & dryer are included in the sale, as are all kitchen appliances. Kitchen has a pantry and the master bedroom has 2 closets. Come see this warm, inviting 2 bedroom unit. Property is within Green Valley Recreation (GVR) service area. GVR membership is required in the form of a permanent deed restriction. GVR Recreation Dues - $515 annually. Go to https://mlssaz.com/gvr HOA includes bldg insurance, HVAC, roof, water heater, exterior maintenance and pest control.

Key facts

• Full sized laundry
• $415 HOA
• Community pool

Tags

• GORGEOUS KITCHEN CABINETS
• FULL SIZED LAUNDRY
• OVER 300 SQUARE FOOT PATIO
• CLOSE TO TWO GREEN SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include pool, paved street, and sidewalks
• HOA & community: Part of Villas East association; HOA includes laundry and community pool; HOA fee paid monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, pest control, roof repair and replacement, sewer, street maintenance, and water; HOA transfer fee applies

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected; Pre-wired telephone lines; Phone connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level; Accessible (level entry); Faces east
• Construction: Brick construction; Built-up roof; Originally constructed (year available in listing details)
• Exterior features: Slab and paver patio/porch; Block fencing; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved road access; Sidewalks; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Microwave; Laundry room with washer and dryer
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (9.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-21,357
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,984
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $116,564

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	23d	1	0.05mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	1d	1	0.06mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	23d	1	0.06mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	23d	1	0.08mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	23d	1	0.12mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	16d	1	0.19mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	16d	1	0.19mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	23d	1	0.21mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	1d	1	0.30mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	14d	1	0.30mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	1d	1	0.42mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	1d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: waterexterior maint.
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-04-10
   price $129,000
7. 2026-02-18
   price $139,000
8. 2026-01-27
   price $143,000
9. 2025-11-01
   listed $150,000 Active
10. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Unique condo in the desired Villas. This is a quiet end unit located off the street. It boasts a large enclosed patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee and evening sunsets. It is one of the few units with a separate laundry/storage room off kitchen. Full size washer & dryer are included in the sale, as are all kitchen appliances. Kitchen has a pantry and the master bedroom has 2 closets. Come see this warm, inviting 2 bedroom unit. Property is within Green Valley Recreation (GVR) service area. GVR membership is required in the form of a permanent deed restriction. GVR Recreation Dues - $515 annually. Go to https://mlssaz.com/gvr HOA includes bldg insurance, HVAC, roof, water heater, exterior maintenance and pest control.

11. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $138,000

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Unique condo in the desired Villas. This is a quiet end unit located off the street. It boasts a large enclosed patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee and evening sunsets. It is one of the few units with a separate laundry/storage room off kitchen. Full size washer & dryer are included in the sale, as are all kitchen appliances. Kitchen has a pantry and the master bedroom has 2 closets. Come see this warm, inviting 2 bedroom unit. Property is within Green Valley Recreation (GVR) service area. GVR membership is required in the form of a permanent deed restriction. GVR Recreation Dues - $515 annually. Go to https://mlssaz.com/gvr HOA includes bldg insurance, HVAC, roof, water heater, exterior maintenance and pest control.

12. 2024-04-19
    status Pending 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Unique condo in the desired Villas. This is a quiet end unit located off the street. It boasts a large enclosed patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee and evening sunsets. It is one of the few units with a separate laundry/storage room off kitchen. Full size washer & dryer are included in the sale, as are all kitchen appliances. Kitchen has a pantry and the master bedroom has 2 closets. Come see this warm, inviting 2 bedroom unit. Property is within Green Valley Recreation (GVR) service area. GVR membership is required in the form of a permanent deed restriction. GVR Recreation Dues - $515 annually. Go to https://mlssaz.com/gvr HOA includes bldg insurance, HVAC, roof, water heater, exterior maintenance and pest control.

13. 2024-04-15
    listed $138,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Unique condo in the desired Villas. This is a quiet end unit located off the street. It boasts a large enclosed patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee and evening sunsets. It is one of the few units with a separate laundry/storage room off kitchen. Full size washer & dryer are included in the sale, as are all kitchen appliances. Kitchen has a pantry and the master bedroom has 2 closets. Come see this warm, inviting 2 bedroom unit. Property is within Green Valley Recreation (GVR) service area. GVR membership is required in the form of a permanent deed restriction. GVR Recreation Dues - $515 annually. Go to https://mlssaz.com/gvr HOA includes bldg insurance, HVAC, roof, water heater, exterior maintenance and pest control.

14. 1999-02-12
    soldstatus $35,000
15. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $36,000
16. 1982-07-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $-160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+330.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $129,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $139,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $143,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-01 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $138,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-19 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-15 Listed $138,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1982-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $600 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.