5616 State Route 339 South · Fancy Farm, KY 42066

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

6.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare find in this old country home sitting on approx. 6.5 acres with a very large pond. Perfect building site and room to have a horse, fish in your own pond (may need stocking) and lots of storage in the large detached garage-shop.

Key facts

• Building site
• Large pond
• 6.5 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE POND
• BUILDING SITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#461 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $24
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $20,758
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42066

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $210/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $99,900 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    A rare find in this old country home sitting on approx. 6.5 acres with a very large pond. Perfect building site and room to have a horse, fish in your own pond (may need stocking) and lots of storage in the large detached garage-shop.

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $129,900 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    A rare find in this old country home sitting on approx. 6.5 acres with a very large pond. Perfect building site and room to have a horse, fish in your own pond (may need stocking) and lots of storage in the large detached garage-shop.

18. 2024-02-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $210 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 308.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$210
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graves County
• NCES district ID: 2102280
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 41.74/100
• National rank: #3400
• State rank: #10 of 165 in KY

Livability — Fancy Farm

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #23024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,635

Population outlook (Graves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,916 people
• By 2030: 36,587 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 35,580 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 33,906 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 28,957 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 21,552 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Graves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.24%
• Current HPI: 258.3279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+399.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $99,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $129,900 WKRMLS
• 2024-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $210 · -22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.