12575 M-72 · Bear Lake, MI 49646

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 0.43 ac lot $102/sqft · 43% below area Est $158k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to northern Michigan recreation at its best with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath getaway. Perfectly situated near Bear Lake and Cub Lake, this property offers easy access to thousands of acres of state land, ORV and snowmobile trails, hunting, fishing, hiking, and year-round outdoor adventure. Inside, youll find a cozy and inviting layout ideal for weekend retreats, full-time living, or an income-producing rental property. Gather around the fire pit under the stars, and take advantage of the storage shed for all your recreational gear and tools.

Key facts

• Orv trails
• Snowmobile trails
• Hunting

Tags

• BEAR LAKE
• CUB LAKE
• STATE LAND
• ORV TRAILS
• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• HUNTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#425 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Kalkaska Public Schools (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #356 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Birch Street Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 354 students, 72% FRL); Kalkaska Middle School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 493 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 66% FRL); Kalkaska High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 449 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Kalkaska County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalkaska County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.47%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,845
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -42.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12883 SE Piper Cir	0.32mi	2/1.0	914 (+4%)	38mo	$144,000	$158	59
553 NE Bear Lake Rd	1.85mi	2/1.0	851 (-4%)	14mo	$139,900	$164	47
83 E Bear Lake Rd	1.00mi	2/1.0	850 (-4%)	38mo	$90,000	$106	39
497 E Bear Lake Rd. Rd NE	1.28mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-15%)	2mo	$147,000	$196	33
11396 Hillcrest Blvd	1.53mi	2/1.0	818 (-7%)	25mo	$209,900	$257	33
10911 E M 72	1.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	935 (+6%)	33mo	$190,000	$203	30
10911 E	1.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	935 (+6%)	33mo	$190,000	$203	30
162 Lake Valley Rd SE	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (+14%)	18mo	$233,000	$233	26
11641 Franklin St	1.17mi	2/1.0	996 (+13%)	37mo	$62,500	$63	23
511 W Bear Lake Rd Lot : 7	1.82mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+25%)	23mo	$230,000	$208	21
511 W Bear Lake Rd	1.82mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+25%)	23mo	$230,000	$208	21
11396 NE Hillcrest Blvd	1.53mi	2/1.0	1,084 (+23%)	58mo	$170,000	$157	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $7,410
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $34,693
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $90,000 ($102/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +75.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 49646

• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $458/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $693

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $371	+0% $346	+5% $320	+10% $295
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $301	+0% $346	+5% $390	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $369	base $346	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the VI-NORA ACRES subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Aluminum sidingPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt on a 0.43-acre lot (approx.)
• Exterior features: Covered porchShed on propertyWooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRangeRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingPropane heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: Bay windows5 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $90,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $90,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $90,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-07-17
    days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $90,000 Active 66 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $90,000 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $458 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 101.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$458
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$680
• After-tax cash flow: $3,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $22,050–$39,690 screening

This mobile home requires moderate renovations, including exterior painting, roof repair, and flooring replacement, to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be missing or damaged, indicating a major issue that needs immediate attention.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows are old and appear to be in poor condition, suggesting a need for replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel is visible and appears to be outdated, indicating a need for an upgrade.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The water heater is not visible, but the overall condition of the house suggests it may be outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house is in poor condition, with visible damage and wear, indicating a need for extensive repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding is weathered and stained, indicating significant damage that needs to be addressed.
• Major roof — The roof shows signs of wear and potential damage, which needs to be assessed and repaired.
• Minor interior walls — The walls show some discoloration and potential water damage, which can be addressed with minor repairs.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the kitchen and living areas appears worn and in need of replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — Refreshing the exterior siding with fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale repair roof — A repaired roof can prevent further water damage and improve the home's overall condition, enhancing its resale value. ↑
• Resale replace flooring — New flooring can greatly improve the home's appearance and increase its marketability. ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen with updated cabinets can enhance the home's appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's functionality and increase its marketability. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Birch Street Elementary School F MI #744/1,397 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Kalkaska Middle School F MI #359/493 Nat'l #9,545/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kalkaska Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620050
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,055
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7308
• State rank: #356 of 540 in MI

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Bear Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #11571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kalkaska · 17,359 people
• Metro: Traverse City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 8,573
• Household income: $55,188
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Kalkaska County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,359 people
• By 2030: 17,222 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 16,643 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 15,810 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 13,772 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 10,976 · -36.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kalkaska

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.8% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+44.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.61%
• Current HPI: 290.8403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the VI-NORA ACRES subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Aluminum sidingPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt on a 0.43-acre lot (approx.)
• Exterior features: Covered porchShed on propertyWooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRangeRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingPropane heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: Bay windows5 total rooms

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $90,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $458 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.