15337 Falmouth Ave #2 · Houston, TX 77084

$206,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · Townhouse public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1982 1,785 sqft lot Est $207k · at est. $160/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FULLY REMODELED OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/ 3 BEDROOMS IN LANGHAM CREEK. GREAT AREA CLOSE TO HWY 6 & 290. SPACIOUS BEDROOMS. MASTERS HAS HUGE CLOSET & DOUBLE SINK. FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT. NEW CARPET, WOOD CABINETS, APPLIANCES, & GRANITE COUNTERS IN KITCHEN. BATHROOM INCLUDES NEW VANITIES. NEW PLUMBING, INSULATION, & ELECTRIC. MOVE-IN READY. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND RESTAURANTS. COMMUNITY HAS SWIMMING POOL, TENNIS COURT, PARK & TRAILS NEARBY. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New carpet
• Double sink

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINK
• NEW CARPET
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-643/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,432 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15353 Falmouth Ave #2	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,156 (0%)	2mo	$199,900	$93	95
15338 Falmouth Ave Unit 1/419	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,156 (0%)	4mo	$209,000	$97	94
6667 Kentwick Dr Unit 2-19	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,024 (-6%)	4mo	$180,000	$89	80
15312 Falmouth Ave #406	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,024 (-6%)	6mo	$124,100	$61	80
6506 Kentwick Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,156 (0%)	9mo	$189,500	$88	78
6703 Kentwick Dr Unit 2/3	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,024 (-6%)	14mo	$219,700	$109	73
15327 Falmouth Ave #2	0.02mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,454 (+14%)	1mo	$208,900	$85	66
6428 Alisa Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,024 (-6%)	4mo	$194,900	$96	66
6428 Kentwick Dr Unit 24/5	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,840 (-15%)	2mo	$110,000	$60	56
6444 Kentwick Dr Unit 24/13	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,840 (-15%)	10mo	$194,900	$106	51
15846 Whiteglade Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,984 (-8%)	2mo	$220,000	$111	50
15818 Whiteglade Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,960 (-9%)	6mo	$235,000	$120	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-28,462
• Equity at exit: $46,035

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,414
• Equity at exit: $45,085

Cash invested: $57,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 494
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,984/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,105

Max offer price $197,432

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,725
• Closing costs: $6,207
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6685 Kentwick Dr #210 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,870	$1.04	7d	1	0.10mi
15111 Falmouth Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	0.23mi
6407 Waldron Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1546	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	0.32mi
6427 Waldron Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1593	$1,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.34mi
15022 Mulberry Meadows Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$1,885	$1.03	1d	1	0.34mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #15288 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,170	$1.31	43d	1	0.35mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,127	$1.29	2d	1	0.35mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,170	$1.31	11d	1	0.35mi
6607 Readsland Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.35mi
15022 Ringfield Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2064	$1,975	$0.96	43d	1	0.45mi
6803 Hedgewick Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2336	$2,550	$1.09	22d	1	0.49mi
6706 Honey Harvest Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,049	$1.09	43d	1	0.65mi
14623 Sanour Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,170	$1.07	5d	1	0.74mi
7415 Broken Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2416	$2,245	$0.93	43d	1	0.81mi
6102 Crakston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	43d	1	0.84mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,381	$1.62	2d	1	0.93mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1168	$2,689	$2.30	1d	1	0.93mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,309	$1.55	10d	1	0.97mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,277	$1.53	2d	1	0.97mi
16222 Summer Dew Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	12d	1	1.05mi
16550 Bouldgreen St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2237	$2,386	$1.07	43d	1	1.18mi
16603 Live Oak Canyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2557	$1,986	$0.78	43d	1	1.20mi
7451 Tunbury Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2630	$2,171	$0.83	7d	1	1.20mi
5703 Afton Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$1,896	$0.86	22d	1	1.25mi
16303 Hickory Point Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2556	$2,400	$0.94	2d	1	1.26mi
7331 Millbrae Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2481	$1,779	$0.72	1d	1	1.44mi
15619 Fern Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1958	$2,335	$1.19	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $206,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $206,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $206,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $206,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $206,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $206,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $206,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $206,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   listed $206,900 Active 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   FULLY REMODELED OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/ 3 BEDROOMS IN LANGHAM CREEK. GREAT AREA CLOSE TO HWY 6 & 290. SPACIOUS BEDROOMS. MASTERS HAS HUGE CLOSET & DOUBLE SINK. FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT. NEW CARPET, WOOD CABINETS, APPLIANCES, & GRANITE COUNTERS IN KITCHEN. BATHROOM INCLUDES NEW VANITIES. NEW PLUMBING, INSULATION, & ELECTRIC. MOVE-IN READY. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND RESTAURANTS. COMMUNITY HAS SWIMMING POOL, TENNIS COURT, PARK & TRAILS NEARBY. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

10. 2017-12-15
    historical
11. 2017-11-10
    price $162,900
12. 2017-10-19
    listed $164,900 Active
13. 2006-10-31
    historical
14. 2006-05-01
    listed $105,644
15. 2005-09-21
    soldstatus
16. 2005-09-21
    soldstatus
17. 1988-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,984 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,984 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,590
• − Property taxes: −$3,984
• − Insurance: −$1,034
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,019
• Taxable loss: −$4,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $206,900 HARMLS
• 2017-12-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-10 Price Changed $162,900 HARMLS
• 2017-10-19 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2006-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-01 Listed $105,644 HARMLS
• 2005-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,984 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.