11131 Trace Ln · Semmes, AL 36587

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 24 sqft · Other public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2002 0.52 ac lot $5829/sqft · 6079% above area Est $147k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful renovated 4-bedroom HOME in Wilmer, AL! As you step inside, you’re greeted by a bright and inviting living room that flows seamlessly into a beautifully updated kitchen with fresh finishes, NEW appliances, ample cabinet space, and a functional layout. Just off the kitchen, a second living area provides the perfect space for a den, playroom, or additional gathering area. The private primary bedroom, with a separate soaking tub and shower, is located off the main living room, while three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom are situated on the opposite side of the home, offering separation and versatility for families, guests, or a home office setup. Recent

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity available (110 volts); Phone available; Water available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: Arthur Trace
• Construction: Built in 2002; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Shutters on windows
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; No fencing; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J E Turner Elementary (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 532 students, 60% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,365 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.21%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,177
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,733
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,330
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36587

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $275	+0% $235	+5% $196	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $182	+0% $235	+5% $289	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $271	base $235	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $139,900 Active 1233-char remark
2. 2004-07-28
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$129
• After-tax cash flow: $2,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,039

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.70%
• Current HPI: 282.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-30 Listed $139,900 GCMLS AL
• 2004-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.