2159 Dalis Dr #106 · Concord, CA 94520

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $177k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An absolute must see mobile home in Dalis Gardens ! Looks almost brand new inside. Crown molding, 3 bedrooms which includes a large master with walk in closet, and 2 bathrooms including a walk in tub. Bright, spacious, and inviting living & dining areas. Updated kitchen countertops, appliances and mobile island. Covered enclosed sun room and outdoor patio with new deck. Sellers leaving refrigerator, washer, dryer, flat screen TV's, electric fireplace, kitchen table & chairs, couch, area carpet and other nice personal items. Enjoy all the amenities of the pool, spa, and clubhouse. Most importantly, quiet and peaceful 55+ senior community living, well maintained and considered very safe. Age of one of the buyers must be 55 or more, and the park must qualify the buyer for tenancy AFTER contract is signed by buyer and seller. Residents living in home !

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.8% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#397 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sun Terrace Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 364 students, 53% FRL); El Dorado Middle (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #431 of 498 statewide, top 88%, 832 students, 71% FRL); Mt. Diablo High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,498 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 37% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mt. Diablo Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.81%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2137 Dalis Dr #95	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-2%)	11mo	$150,000	$100	81
2031 Dalis Dr #48	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-3%)	7mo	$218,000	$147	80
2122 Dalis Dr #236	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$217,000	$151	79
2227 Dalis Dr #159	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$129,950	$90	77
2259 Dalis Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	74
2110 Dalis #238	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	72
2217 Dalis Dr #134	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	17mo	$148,500	$103	66
2019 Dalis Dr #42	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$140,000	$97	66
2294 Dalis Dr #204	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	18mo	$175,000	$122	61
1053 Peralta Rd #24	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (-6%)	18mo	$195,000	$135	58
2331 Dalis Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-9%)	18mo	$160,000	$115	54
2006 Dalis Dr #256	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	13mo	$199,000	$148	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $41,831
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $117,795
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94520

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,342	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,145	+10% $1,079
Rent	-10% $952	-5% $1,081	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,340	+10% $1,470
Rate	-1.0pp $1,306	-0.5pp $1,259	base $1,211	+0.5pp $1,162	+1.0pp $1,111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2859 Foskett Ave Concord, CA	4.0	2.0	1520	$3,100	$2.04	13d	1	0.46mi
2838 Loma Vista Ave Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,995	$2.38	26d	1	0.49mi
3412 Flamingo Dr #3410 Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1062	$4,000	$3.77	26d	1	0.64mi
3743 Sanford St Concord, CA	4.0	2.0	1672	$3,400	$2.03	13d	1	0.83mi
2627 Prestwick Ave Concord, CA	4.0	2.0	1260	$3,500	$2.78	18d	1	0.96mi
3378 Moretti Dr Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$3,695	$2.98	26d	1	1.14mi
3218 Bonifacio St Concord, CA	4.0	2.0	1606	$3,500	$2.18	23d	1	1.29mi
2477 Pacheco St Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	20d	1	1.40mi
2019 Fir St Concord, CA	4.0	2.5	1952	$3,900	$2.00	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 460-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2018-01-16
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    An absolute must see mobile home in Dalis Gardens ! Looks almost brand new inside. Crown molding, 3 bedrooms which includes a large master with walk in closet, and 2 bathrooms including a walk in tub. Bright, spacious, and inviting living & dining areas. Updated kitchen countertops, appliances and mobile island. Covered enclosed sun room and outdoor patio with new deck. Sellers leaving refrigerator, washer, dryer, flat screen TV's, electric fireplace, kitchen table & chairs, couch, area carpet and other nice personal items. Enjoy all the amenities of the pool, spa, and clubhouse. Most importantly, quiet and peaceful 55+ senior community living, well maintained and considered very safe. Age of one of the buyers must be 55 or more, and the park must qualify the buyer for tenancy AFTER contract is signed by buyer and seller. Residents living in home !

20. 2017-11-18
    status Pending 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    An absolute must see mobile home in Dalis Gardens ! Looks almost brand new inside. Crown molding, 3 bedrooms which includes a large master with walk in closet, and 2 bathrooms including a walk in tub. Bright, spacious, and inviting living & dining areas. Updated kitchen countertops, appliances and mobile island. Covered enclosed sun room and outdoor patio with new deck. Sellers leaving refrigerator, washer, dryer, flat screen TV's, electric fireplace, kitchen table & chairs, couch, area carpet and other nice personal items. Enjoy all the amenities of the pool, spa, and clubhouse. Most importantly, quiet and peaceful 55+ senior community living, well maintained and considered very safe. Age of one of the buyers must be 55 or more, and the park must qualify the buyer for tenancy AFTER contract is signed by buyer and seller. Residents living in home !

21. 2017-11-10
    listed $175,000 New 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    An absolute must see mobile home in Dalis Gardens ! Looks almost brand new inside. Crown molding, 3 bedrooms which includes a large master with walk in closet, and 2 bathrooms including a walk in tub. Bright, spacious, and inviting living & dining areas. Updated kitchen countertops, appliances and mobile island. Covered enclosed sun room and outdoor patio with new deck. Sellers leaving refrigerator, washer, dryer, flat screen TV's, electric fireplace, kitchen table & chairs, couch, area carpet and other nice personal items. Enjoy all the amenities of the pool, spa, and clubhouse. Most importantly, quiet and peaceful 55+ senior community living, well maintained and considered very safe. Age of one of the buyers must be 55 or more, and the park must qualify the buyer for tenancy AFTER contract is signed by buyer and seller. Residents living in home !

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,148
• − Management: −$3,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $12,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,948
• After-tax cash flow: $11,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #13519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 125,693
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,381
• Household income: $82,479
• Rent vs Own: 62.5% rent · 37.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2649.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 28% Two or more races 20% Asian 10% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 43% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -551.74%
• Current HPI: 440.2872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $190,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-01-16 Sold (MLS) $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-11-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-11-10 Listed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR