13317 Winton Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$286,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,913 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 5,749 sqft lot Est $274k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Portofino - This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Three secondary bedrooms are secluded near the foyer, leading to an inviting open-concept layout with access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor living. Nestled into a private rear corner is a luxurious owner’s suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Private rear corner
• Full bathroom
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE REAR CORNER
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,891 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,559
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13317 Winton Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,913 (0%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	100
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+2%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	90
13313 Winton Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-0%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	89
23409 Firelight Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+2%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	88
13320 Winton Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-0%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	88
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-2%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	88
13301 Winton Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-0%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	87
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-1%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	82
23405 Firelight Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,149 (+12%)	2mo	$293,990	$137	71
23825 Glowing Embers Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+13%)	2mo	$258,990	$120	60
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-13%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	59
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-13%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $135,940
• Equity at exit: $258,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $417,263
• Equity at exit: $557,576

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $239,979

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-226	+0% $-325	+5% $-424	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-411	+0% $-325	+5% $-239	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-252	base $-325	+0.5pp $-399	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	0.07mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.27mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.65mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.66mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.73mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.73mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.77mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	4d	1	0.80mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.80mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.91mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.92mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.96mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.04mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.04mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	22d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $286,999
3. 2026-04-10
   price $288,999
4. 2026-04-03
   price $292,999
5. 2026-03-30
   price $292,990
6. 2026-03-27
   price $287,990
7. 2026-03-16
   price $286,990
8. 2026-03-03
   price $285,990
9. 2026-03-02
   price $283,990
10. 2026-02-24
    price $285,990
11. 2026-02-24
    listed $293,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$8,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $286,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $288,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $292,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $292,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $287,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $286,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $285,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $283,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $285,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $293,990 Unlock MLS