Beckman Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily · 381 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Private corner
• Adjoining bathroom
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE CORNER
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,531 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,995
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -7.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17310 Glacier Forest Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,269 (0%)	2mo	$199,990	$158	97
17319 Glacier Forest Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,269 (0%)	2mo	$200,840	$158	97
17330 Glacier Forest Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,269 (0%)	2mo	$178,990	$141	96
318 Bismuth Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-5%)	7mo	$209,990	$174	79
610 Zeus Mountains Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+2%)	12mo	$241,290	$185	69
342 Harbor Mist Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+5%)	3mo	$194,000	$145	65
17030 Morning Star Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+3%)	3mo	$149,000	$114	55
327 Binnacle Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+6%)	13mo	$220,000	$164	53
615 Harbor Mist Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+3%)	12mo	$224,900	$172	52
17406 Morning Star Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+10%)	11mo	$212,000	$152	47
17514 Marl Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+13%)	2mo	$235,000	$164	45
454 Fishhawk Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+12%)	7mo	$222,800	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,501
• Equity at exit: $37,126

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-71,453
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,719 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $225,806

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-74	+0% $-160	+5% $-246	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-238	+0% $-160	+5% $-82	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-97	base $-160	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,249
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,783	$1.30	1d	1	0.56mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	45d	1	1.03mi
16700 Golf Club Dr Crosby, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,275	$1.63	0d	12	1.19mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,990 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $229,990 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,990 Active 377 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,990 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,990 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,990 Active 373 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,990 Active 369 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 364 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,990 Active 360 DOM
15. 2025-06-05
    listed $255,990 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$7,243
• Taxable loss: −$6,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-05 Listed $255,990 Zillow