568 State St Unit C · St. Paul, MN 55107

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,428 sqft · Townhouse public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2004 1,045 sqft lot $165/sqft · 25% below area Est $326k · 28% under $579/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic New Construction Townhome Development By Neighborhood Development Alliance!

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Private balcony
• Secure parking

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• TUCK-UNDER GARAGE
• SECURE PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO PARKS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is common/shared, about 0.024 acres
• HOA & community: Has HOA (First Service Residential); Monthly HOA fee of $579 covering lawn care, grounds maintenance, snow removal and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuck-under garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels
• Construction: Flat roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Stone exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen with range, dishwasher and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (24.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $176,751 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,405
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -28.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,233
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,012
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55107

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,402/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$579
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $176,751

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-263	+0% $-330	+5% $-396	+10% $-463
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-423	+0% $-330	+5% $-237	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-270	base $-330	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 Wyoming St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0	1038	$2,599	$2.50	0d	1	0.60mi
140 Belvidere St W Unit 1 St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	3d	1	0.86mi
993 Robert St S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1214	$1,765	$1.45	5d	1	0.90mi
422 Arion St E West St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,395	$1.30	25d	1	1.14mi
421 Stanley St Unit 423 St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	5d	1	1.17mi
460 Stanley St Unit 2 West St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	15d	1	1.23mi
45 Butler Ave E Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,688	$1.59	0d	9	1.24mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	22	1.31mi
111 Kellogg Blvd E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,783	$2.78	2d	20	1.32mi
141 4th St E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,420	$2.98	20d	20	1.40mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$3,269	$2.41	10d	10	1.45mi
400 Spring St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$3,275	$2.72	0d	32	1.45mi
240 5th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,770	$2.92	0d	9	1.46mi
1266 Gorman Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	816	$1,329	$1.63	17d	3	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $579 · $6,948/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $235,000 Active 650-char remark
15. 2026-05-13
    historical
16. 2026-03-19
    price $240,000
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $250,000 Active
18. 2026-02-16
    historical
19. 2006-02-24
    soldstatus $205,627

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Fantastic New Construction Townhome Development By Neighborhood Development Alliance!

20. 2006-01-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Fantastic New Construction Townhome Development By Neighborhood Development Alliance!

21. 2005-07-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Fantastic New Construction Townhome Development By Neighborhood Development Alliance!

22. 2005-07-25
    listed $199,900

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Fantastic New Construction Townhome Development By Neighborhood Development Alliance!

23. 2005-01-11
    listed $191,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,402
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − HOA: −$6,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,377
• Household income: $74,531
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.70%
• Current HPI: 298.8714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+23.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-24 Sold (MLS) $205,627 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-25 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-11 Listed $191,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,402 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.