3295 Stephens Blvd · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2000 8,712 sqft lot Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Veteran owned & Very well maintained! -Hurricane ready! Anchored to ground with aluminum shutters on every window, -Roof in good condition. -Comes with microwave, refrigerator and dishwasher -Drinkable well water with good in ground pump. -Septic system in good condition -New large AC unit with thermostat. -25x12 detached wired workshop. -8x4 shed in back of property. -Back patio BBQ area with flower garden. -RV Site with Full hookups with 30 amp. -Fireplace with one year supply of oak firewood.

Key facts

• In ground pump
• Hurricane ready
• Large ac unit

Tags

• HURRICANE READY
• ALUMINUM SHUTTERS
• DRINKABLE WELL WATER
• IN GROUND PUMP
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• LARGE AC UNIT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House; Living area approximately 1,296
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 8,712 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,158/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 733% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $169k implies a 461% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.15%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,256
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3263 Morrison Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-6%)	12mo	$170,000	$140	77
3249 Susan Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$105	75
3309 Susan Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	17mo	$224,000	$173	71
3382 Fiskway St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	10mo	$169,900	$136	68
3307 Keye Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-12%)	4mo	$240,000	$210	68
3236 Painters St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	10mo	$120,000	$96	60
7212 Toucan Trl	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-15%)	5mo	$120,000	$109	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,312
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $38,920
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $724	+0% $676	+5% $628	+10% $581
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $591	+0% $676	+5% $762	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $761	-0.5pp $719	base $676	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7369 Sealawn Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	5d	1	0.37mi
7272 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,650	$1.88	26d	1	0.44mi
7423 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	0.62mi
7410 Cherokee Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,725	$1.44	14d	1	0.65mi
7483 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,795	$1.13	7d	1	0.72mi
7423 Mohawk Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	20d	1	0.73mi
4108 Monona Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,900	$1.26	26d	1	0.94mi
3191 Deltona Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,815	$1.33	26d	1	1.14mi
4300 Bridgewater Club Loop Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,484	$1.38	1d	13	1.21mi
4398 Plumosa St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,985	$1.21	26d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $169,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 506-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $189,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$543/yr (+$45/mo · 63.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,359
• After-tax cash flow: $6,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+142.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $189,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2011-03-22 Sold (MLS) $30,100 HCAR
• 2011-02-09 Listed $43,000 HCAR
• 2010-12-30 Listed $38,700 HCAR
• 2010-11-16 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2010-09-17 Listed $43,000 HCAR
• 2008-08-13 Listed $39,900 HCAR
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,600 Public Records
• 2005-05-30 Sold (MLS) $82,574 HCAR
• 2005-04-21 Listed $77,900 HCAR

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.