9280 53rd St N · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$639,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1991 1.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this spacious home offering convenient main-floor living in a sought-after Lake Elmo neighborhood within the highly rated Stillwater Area Public Schools. The private primary en-suite features a whirlpool soaking tub, creating the perfect relaxing retreat. Enjoy the fully screened 3-season porch, spacious deck, and mature trees that provide privacy as you walk out to the back patio overlooking a tranquil pond. The peaceful backyard is frequently visited by deer and turkey, offering a true nature-filled setting. At the end of the day, unwind in your own personal sauna. Additional area highlights include nearby public access to Lake Jane, along with a dog park and playground featurin

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Main-floor living
• Mature trees

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE PRIMARY EN-SUITE
• WHIRLPOOL SOAKING TUB
• FULLY SCREENED 3-SEASON PORCH
• SPACIOUS DECK
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Guest parking; Storage area in garage; Asphalt and concrete driveway; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; 200+ amp electric service (Xcel Energy); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level (main living on one level); Accessible features including 36+ inch doors and grab bars in bathroom
• Construction: Block and concrete perimeter foundation; Built with stucco and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Composite decking; Deck; Enclosed porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Stucco and stone exterior; Pond on property; Medium tree coverage; Public maintained paved streets with curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Wall oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 three-quarter bath; Main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Finished basement with storage, egress windows and owner access; Main floor primary bedroom; Wet bar; Sun room; Sauna; Tile floors; Kitchen center island; Kitchen window
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (65.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (63.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (65.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Elmo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,909 (65.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.77%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 22.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-253,776
• Equity at exit: $95,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.31×
• Total profit: $-414,529
• Equity at exit: $55,327

Cash invested: $179,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 22.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,882/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-2,355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,311

Max offer price $223,909

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,993	-5% $-2,174	+0% $-2,355	+5% $-2,536	+10% $-2,717
Rent	-10% $-2,539	-5% $-2,447	+0% $-2,355	+5% $-2,263	+10% $-2,171
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,033	-0.5pp $-2,192	base $-2,355	+0.5pp $-2,521	+1.0pp $-2,689

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,975
• Closing costs: $19,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $639,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    status $639,900 Contingent - Inspection 7 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    listed $639,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,882 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,024 · $585/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,882
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$18,615
• Taxable loss: −$41,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $639,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,882 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.