36 Magnolia Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$549,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1935 0.34 ac lot $222/sqft · 10% below area Est $610k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home. NEW SOLAR AND ROOF

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($542k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $439k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,086 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $609,986
• List price: $549,999
• Delta: -9.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 Elder Dr	0.46mi	4/1.0	2,492 (+1%)	8mo	$430,000	$173	69
145 Monroe Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-13%)	7mo	$626,000	$290	51
30 Lakeview Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,200 (-11%)	1mo	$620,000	$282	46
309 Dogwood Rd W	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,208 (-11%)	4mo	$410,000	$186	43
6 Bayside Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,592 (+5%)	17mo	$670,000	$258	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $224,288
• Equity at exit: $495,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $720,850
• Equity at exit: $1,068,527

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$819 /mo · $9,830/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$852
• Net cashflow: $-1,188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,561

Max offer price $340,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-877	-5% $-1,033	+0% $-1,188	+5% $-1,344	+10% $-1,500
Rent	-10% $-1,509	-5% $-1,349	+0% $-1,188	+5% $-1,028	+10% $-868
Rate	-1.0pp $-911	-0.5pp $-1,048	base $-1,188	+0.5pp $-1,331	+1.0pp $-1,476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	1.15mi
301 William Floyd Pkwy Shirley, NY	4.0	4.0	3342	$3,500	$1.05	24d	1	1.47mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home. NEW SOLAR AND ROOF

2. 2026-04-07
   listed $549,999 Active 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home. NEW SOLAR AND ROOF

3. 2026-03-26
   historical $549,999 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home. NEW SOLAR AND ROOF

4. 2023-05-03
   soldstatus $439,000
5. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $426,000 Closed 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

6. 2022-08-17
   status Pending 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

7. 2022-06-30
   price $419,500 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

8. 2022-06-11
   listed $434,500 Active 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   One of a Kind, Open Concept Home in Mint Condition! Only Minutes From Smith Point Beach! Balconies Overlook The Breathtaking Serenity of Water & Nature of Narrow Bay!! Vaulted Ceilings, Large and Numerous Windows, & Glass sliders Bring in Abundance of Natural Lighting & Give Home Breathability. Numerous Updates Include Updated Kitchen W/ Gorgeous Cabinetry, New Appliances, Ample Storage & Counter Space... Half Bath Cabinets Match Kitchen & Tiles Match Upstairs Bath, Fresh Paint Throughout, New Floors Throughout... Soaking Tub in Upstairs Full Bath Great for Relaxation. Home is Perfect and Move-in Ready!! Backyard Spacious & Ready to Make Your Own. Large Driveway Can Park Multiple Cars. Location Has Privacy But Still Convenient to Shops & Dining! Don't Miss Out on This Amazing Water-View Home., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

9. 2010-01-27
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,830 · $819/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,830 · $819/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,808
• − Property taxes: −$9,830
• − Insurance: −$8,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,894
• − Management: −$3,894
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$24,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,765
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+787.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $549,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $549,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $439,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $426,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $419,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-11 Listed $434,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,830 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.