8108 Timberlake Rd #124 · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$135,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 864 sqft · Townhouse public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1984 1,307 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $141k · at est. $175/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom townhouse in heart of Timberlake Road close to shopping, restraunts, and much more. Perfect for first time home buyers or investors. Large kitchen and living area. Nice back deck for relaxing and entertaining. Call now for your private showing.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Back deck
• $175 HOA

Tags

• HEART OF TIMBERLAKE ROAD
• LARGE KITCHEN
• BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($587/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,669 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,769
• List price: $135,900
• Delta: -3.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8108 Timberlake Rd #128	0.00mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	4mo	$139,900	$162	97
8108 Timberlake Rd #147	0.00mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	14mo	$159,000	$184	88
8108 Timberlake Rd #102	0.00mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	19mo	$152,000	$176	84
8108 Timberlake	0.01mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	20mo	$90,000	$104	83
8022 Timberlake Rd #20	0.05mi	2/1.5	900 (+4%)	16mo	$155,000	$172	77
8022 Timberlake Rd #22	0.05mi	2/1.5	900 (+4%)	19mo	$140,000	$156	74
8022 Timberlake Rd	0.06mi	2/1.5	900 (+4%)	19mo	$140,000	$156	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-15,859
• Equity at exit: $20,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,231
• Equity at exit: $11,750

Cash invested: $38,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $135,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,975
• Closing costs: $4,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,349	$1.18	13d	20	0.45mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	43d	1	0.47mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,149	$1.15	13d	14	0.47mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	43d	1	0.48mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit C Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.51mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.51mi
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	43d	1	0.64mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	13d	1	0.88mi
111 Northwynd Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,175	$1.12	13d	3	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom townhouse in heart of Timberlake Road close to shopping, restraunts, and much more. Perfect for first time home buyers or investors. Large kitchen and living area. Nice back deck for relaxing and entertaining. Call now for your private showing.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $135,900 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom townhouse in heart of Timberlake Road close to shopping, restraunts, and much more. Perfect for first time home buyers or investors. Large kitchen and living area. Nice back deck for relaxing and entertaining. Call now for your private showing.

3. 2026-02-12
   listed $139,900 Active 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom townhouse in heart of Timberlake Road close to shopping, restraunts, and much more. Perfect for first time home buyers or investors. Large kitchen and living area. Nice back deck for relaxing and entertaining. Call now for your private showing.

4. 2022-10-27
   soldstatus $132,000 Closed
5. 2022-09-23
   status Pending
6. 2022-09-21
   listed $121,000 Active
7. 2014-01-13
   listed $68,900
8. 2008-09-04
   soldstatus $55,000
9. 2006-10-20
   soldstatus $58,000
10. 2006-07-05
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,613
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$385
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+134.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $135,900 LMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (MLS) $132,000 LMLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed $121,000 LMLS
• 2014-01-13 Listed $68,900 LMLS
• 2008-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.