3209 Dutch Hollow Rd · Lakewood, NY 14712

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 0.57 ac lot Est $245k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large 4 bedroom 2 full bath Colonial home sits on just shy of an acre of land in the Bemus Point School District. Oversized detached garage plus an additional 1 car metal garage with driveway entry are included. This country home is over 2200 sq feet with eat in kitchen, large central living room with a wood burning fire place w/ insert. Hardwood floors throughout, covered rear deck and front patio. First floor master bedroom suite. Located just a mile from Maple Grove HS.

Key facts

• Pole barn
• Updated electric
• Front porch

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW WATER FILTER SYSTEM
• POLE BARN
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers and fuses); Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story; Existing condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Gravel driveway; Irregular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wood stove (see remarks)
• Interior features: Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Country kitchen; Has basement (full and crawl space); 3 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $195k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,982 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,300
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3984 Pancake Hill Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (-14%)	14mo	$209,900	$110	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $115,516
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $332,859
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,441/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 674-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,868 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,441
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+154.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $195,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) $115,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-09-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-07-17 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-07-17 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $57,921 Public Records
• 2008-12-04 Sold (MLS) $73,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-18 Listed $76,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,441 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.