10 Mountain Brook Cir #1 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$635,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · Condo public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1985 $401/sqft · 6% above area Est $598k · 6% over $1045/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Forest Ridge in Lincoln, NH — a community known for its convenience, recreation, and mountain-town charm. This inviting 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers a comfortable layout ideal for both year-round living and weekend getaways. A large private deck extends your living space outdoors, providing the perfect spot to soak up the afternoon sun or unwind after a day of adventure. The home also enjoys an expansive adjacent common area, giving you plenty of room for yard games, gatherings, or simply enjoying the open green space. Just a short walk away is the Kanc Rec area, featuring a playground, baseball field, and even a tow rope for winter skiing — a rare and convenient perk for families and outdoor enthusiasts. With its desirable location, generous outdoor space, and access to Forest Ridge amenities, this property offers a wonderful blend of comfort, recreation, and mountain living.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Kanc rec area
• Tow rope

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• ADJACENT COMMON AREA
• KANC REC AREA
• PLAYGROUND
• BASEBALL FIELD
• TOW ROPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $635k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $635k).
• Recommended offer: $597k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $178k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($597k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $266k; list at $635k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $596,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.98%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $598,407
• List price: $635,000
• Delta: 6.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $286,165
• Equity at exit: $257,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $723,418
• Equity at exit: $375,627

Cash invested: $177,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,330
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,419/yr
• Insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$1,045
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,315
• Net cashflow: $3,701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,339

Max offer price $635,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,061	-5% $3,881	+0% $3,701	+5% $3,522	+10% $3,342
Rent	-10% $2,830	-5% $3,266	+0% $3,701	+5% $4,137	+10% $4,572
Rate	-1.0pp $4,021	-0.5pp $3,863	base $3,701	+0.5pp $3,537	+1.0pp $3,369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $158,750
• Closing costs: $19,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	0.64mi
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	45d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,045 · $12,540/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $635,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $635,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $635,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $635,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $635,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $635,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $635,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $635,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $635,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $635,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $635,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $635,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $635,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $635,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $635,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $635,000 Active 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Welcome to Forest Ridge in Lincoln, NH — a community known for its convenience, recreation, and mountain-town charm. This inviting 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers a comfortable layout ideal for both year-round living and weekend getaways. A large private deck extends your living space outdoors, providing the perfect spot to soak up the afternoon sun or unwind after a day of adventure. The home also enjoys an expansive adjacent common area, giving you plenty of room for yard games, gatherings, or simply enjoying the open green space. Just a short walk away is the Kanc Rec area, featuring a playground, baseball field, and even a tow rope for winter skiing — a rare and convenient perk for families and outdoor enthusiasts. With its desirable location, generous outdoor space, and access to Forest Ridge amenities, this property offers a wonderful blend of comfort, recreation, and mountain living.

17. 2007-12-14
    soldstatus $265,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,419 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,131 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,712/yr (+$393/mo · 106.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,570
• − Property taxes: −$4,419
• − Insurance: −$3,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,583
• − Management: −$10,583
• − HOA: −$12,540
• − Depreciation: −$18,473
• Taxable income: $36,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,868
• After-tax cash flow: $35,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+139.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $635,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $265,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,419 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.