4315 Catherine St · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2001 6,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4315 Cathrine Street, a beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a large, meticulously maintained lot on the desirable east end of the beach. Located in a quiet, peaceful neighborhood, this property offers comfort, convenience, and coastal charm all in one. Step inside to discover a completely renovated interior featuring brand-new flooring, updated countertops, modern appliances, and fresh finishes throughout--everything has been done for you! The open and inviting layout creates a warm, move-in-ready space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the spacious yard is fully enclosed with a 6-foot privacy fence and equipped with a sprinkler system to keep the landscaping lush and green year-round. Two 12' x 12' storage sheds provide ample space for tools, hobbies, or beach gear. Even better--all flower pots, plants, fountain, and yard art convey with the home, adding character and charm to your outdoor oasis. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening breeze from the covered front and rear decks--ideal spots to unwind and enjoy the coastal lifestyle. Conveniently located just a golf cart ride away from grocery stores, restaurants, and Bay Point Golf Club, you'll have everything you need within easy reach. Plus, you're less than 3 miles from Naval Support Activity Panama City, making this an excellent option for military personnel or anyone seeking quick access to the base. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this east-end gem offers location, upgrades, and lifestyle all wrapped into one exceptional property

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Privacy fence
• Updated interior

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• RENOVATED INTERIOR
• SPACIOUS YARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $259k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.22%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,964
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $41,753
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	21d	1	0.36mi
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	21d	1	0.42mi
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,500 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,500 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,500 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,500 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,500 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,500 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,500 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,500 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $264,500 Active 1620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1620 chars)

    Welcome to 4315 Cathrine Street, a beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a large, meticulously maintained lot on the desirable east end of the beach. Located in a quiet, peaceful neighborhood, this property offers comfort, convenience, and coastal charm all in one. Step inside to discover a completely renovated interior featuring brand-new flooring, updated countertops, modern appliances, and fresh finishes throughout--everything has been done for you! The open and inviting layout creates a warm, move-in-ready space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the spacious yard is fully enclosed with a 6-foot privacy fence and equipped with a sprinkler system to keep the landscaping lush and green year-round. Two 12' x 12' storage sheds provide ample space for tools, hobbies, or beach gear. Even better--all flower pots, plants, fountain, and yard art convey with the home, adding character and charm to your outdoor oasis. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening breeze from the covered front and rear decks--ideal spots to unwind and enjoy the coastal lifestyle. Conveniently located just a golf cart ride away from grocery stores, restaurants, and Bay Point Golf Club, you'll have everything you need within easy reach. Plus, you're less than 3 miles from Naval Support Activity Panama City, making this an excellent option for military personnel or anyone seeking quick access to the base. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this east-end gem offers location, upgrades, and lifestyle all wrapped into one exceptional property

19. 2021-12-14
    historical
20. 2004-05-19
    soldstatus $70,200
21. 2004-04-14
    soldstatus $70,200
22. 2003-11-20
    listed $72,500
23. 2002-04-12
    listed $64,900
24. 2001-06-26
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,280/yr (+$107/mo · 147.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $3,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$794
• After-tax cash flow: $6,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1724.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $264,500 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2004-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,200 Public Records
• 2004-04-14 Sold (MLS) $70,200 CPARMLS
• 2003-11-20 Listed $72,500 CPARMLS
• 2002-04-12 Listed $64,900 CPARMLS
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.