Vertex (Forest Lakes) Plan · Conway, AR 72034

$69,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · Manufactured · 320 Days on market

$400/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Conway just north of Little Rock Arkansas, and near the beautiful Lake Conway, Forest Lake Pointe is a charming community. The community has on-site management, a clubhouse, picnic areas, playground, pickleball, shuffleboard, pavilions, and duck ponds and a community center with billiards. Forest Lake Pointe offers a refreshingly fun place to live and play. Forest Lake is minutes away from downtown Conway, retail shops, theaters, community sports complex, Conway Regional Hospital, colleges and more. Major employers in Little Rock include Amazon, Deloitte, Target, Verizon and the U. S. Air Force. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Fishing Lake, On-Site Management, La

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pickleball
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• LAKE CONWAY
• CLUBHOUSE
• PICNIC AREAS
• PLAYGROUND
• PICKLEBALL
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1001 (listed without unit specification)
• Financial info: List price: $69,995
• HOA & community: Homeowners association fee: $400

Exterior

• Home design: Plan: Vertex (Forest Lakes)
• Construction: New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.33%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $1,643
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $7,897
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72034

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 S Salem Rd Conway, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	6579	$1,599	$0.24	14d	12	1.27mi
3300 Pebble Beach Rd Conway, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,025	$1.25	14d	1	1.43mi
3970 Gabrial Dr Conway, AR	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,600	$1.29	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,995 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,995 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,995 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,995 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,995 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,995 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,995 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,995 Active 310 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,995 Active 309 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,995 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,995 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,995 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 301 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 0504590
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 38.27/100
• National rank: #4236
• State rank: #36 of 238 in AR

Livability — Conway

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #8673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conway, AR
• County: Faulkner County · 103,634 people
• City population: 84,754
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 50,285
• Household income: $65,635
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2282.0

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.99%
• Current HPI: 225.7805
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B