13114 Bethel Ct · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2000 0.47 ac lot $128/sqft · 17% below area Est $248k · 17% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living at it finest!! This lovely 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has everything you need!! With just under 1/2 an acre there is so much room for activities!! Conveniently nestled at the end of a cul-de-sac, close to shopping and entertainment, but with a small town feel. You do not want to miss this one!! Call TODAY for your private tour.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2000; Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built by Clayton Homes
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor primary bedroom (12x15); First-floor bedroom (10x11); First-floor bedroom (10x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy J Wollam El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 627 students, 60% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,926 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,500
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -17.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13402 Mount Vernon St	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,630 (+2%)	12mo	$469,800	$288	68
12618 Ponderosa Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	12mo	$315,000	$210	59
12415 Ponderosa Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-7%)	18mo	$269,990	$181	53
1910 Fm 646 Rd N	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-9%)	7mo	$359,500	$247	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,601
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,530
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $205,000
15. 2026-05-14
    historical
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $205,000 Active 343-char remark
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus
19. 2007-05-25
    soldstatus
20. 2006-03-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,011/yr (+$251/mo · 406.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.