209 Southview Dr · Henderson, TX 75654

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 1961 0.27 ac lot $137/sqft · 11% below area Est $220k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home located just minutes from Henderson’s major shopping centers and conveniences. Offering comfort and functionality, this home is perfect for those seeking both style and accessibility in a prime location. Recent updates include a new roof, replaced exterior fascia, new water heater, updated bathrooms, some new flooring, updated kitchen countertops and appliances, fresh interior paint, and a replaced carport ceiling—giving you peace of mind and modern touches throughout. It won’t last long—call your favorite agent today!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New water heater
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• NEW ROOF
• REPLACED EXTERIOR FASCIA
• NEW WATER HEATER
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,891 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,912
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -11.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $82,728
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $262,132
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $141,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-234	-5% $-301	+0% $-369	+5% $-436	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-418	+0% $-369	+5% $-320	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-319	base $-369	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $207,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $207,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $207,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home located just minutes from Henderson’s major shopping centers and conveniences. Offering comfort and functionality, this home is perfect for those seeking both style and accessibility in a prime location. Recent updates include a new roof, replaced exterior fascia, new water heater, updated bathrooms, some new flooring, updated kitchen countertops and appliances, fresh interior paint, and a replaced carport ceiling—giving you peace of mind and modern touches throughout. It won’t last long—call your favorite agent today!

18. 2026-03-25
    price $209,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home located just minutes from Henderson’s major shopping centers and conveniences. Offering comfort and functionality, this home is perfect for those seeking both style and accessibility in a prime location. Recent updates include a new roof, replaced exterior fascia, new water heater, updated bathrooms, some new flooring, updated kitchen countertops and appliances, fresh interior paint, and a replaced carport ceiling—giving you peace of mind and modern touches throughout. It won’t last long—call your favorite agent today!

19. 2026-03-02
    listed $215,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home located just minutes from Henderson’s major shopping centers and conveniences. Offering comfort and functionality, this home is perfect for those seeking both style and accessibility in a prime location. Recent updates include a new roof, replaced exterior fascia, new water heater, updated bathrooms, some new flooring, updated kitchen countertops and appliances, fresh interior paint, and a replaced carport ceiling—giving you peace of mind and modern touches throughout. It won’t last long—call your favorite agent today!

20. 2015-02-11
    soldstatus 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This one want last long! 3//2/1C move in condition! Updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, cabinet doors, flooring, paint, light fixtures and more! Don't let this one pass you by super neat and clean!

21. 2014-12-17
    listed $103,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This one want last long! 3//2/1C move in condition! Updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, cabinet doors, flooring, paint, light fixtures and more! Don't let this one pass you by super neat and clean!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$8,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $207,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $209,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $215,000 LAAR
• 2015-02-11 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2014-12-17 Listed $103,000 GTAR